The latest forecasts from S&P Global Market Intelligence show all three major cruise lines losing money until at least Q3 2022 and Q4 being rather hit or miss. That being said, things should start to settle down in 2023 and thereafter.
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Royal Caribbean has a massive amount of debt on its balance sheet that it accumulated during the pandemic to stave off bankruptcy. At the end of Q2, the company had $18.7 billion in long-term debt and $1.7 billion in current debt (meaning debt due within 1 year).
Covid-19 shut the industry for the best part of two years, leaving the Big Three — Carnival Corp, Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings — under an unprecedented pile of debt that they will be paying down for years. Carnival is $35bn in the hole, Royal Caribbean owes $24bn and Norwegian owes $13.4bn.
The company faces lingering debt from when it suspended operations earlier in the pandemic. Booking rates have increased, but concerns about inflation and a possible recession, as well as COVID, remain.
Now, more than a year after it resumed operations, its losses continue. In the first nine months of 2022, Carnival lost $4.5 billion. During the same period in fiscal 2021, Carnival reported a net loss of $6.9 billion, a time when it had barely begun to return to the seas. Still, improvements are coming steadily.
Stock Price ForecastThe 15 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 125.00, with a high estimate of 139.00 and a low estimate of 95.00. The median estimate represents a +44.03% increase from the last price of 86.79.
Out of 12 analysts, 7 (58.33%) are recommending RCL as a Strong Buy, 3 (25%) are recommending RCL as a Buy, 2 (16.67%) are recommending RCL as a Hold, 0 (0%) are recommending RCL as a Sell, and 0 (0%) are recommending RCL as a Strong Sell.
Some of the environmental challenges that cruise lines need to address are air pollution from heavy oil, wastewater discharge issues, habitat disruption, and overtourism. The 'elephant in the room' is that cruise lines are currently using heavy oil – also known as the dirtiest of the dirty oils.
How Much Debt Does Carnival Corporation & Carry? The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Carnival Corporation & had US$33.8b in debt in May 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$4.47b in cash, and so its net debt is US$29.3b.
The odds of a cruise ship sinking are extremely low. Only 11 ocean cruise ships have sunk while on a cruise in the last 50 years. Assuming an average of 100 sailings per ship per year, and an average of 150 cruise ships in that time, that is odds of 1 in 68,000.
The cruise industry took a big hit during the pandemic. But now travelers are casting off in record numbers, thanks to a post-COVID cruise comeback. The 2023 cruise industry is booming. It has far surpassed 2019 levels, breaking sales records in a furious, post-pandemic comeback.
Stock Price ForecastThe 18 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Carnival Corp have a median target of 19.00, with a high estimate of 25.00 and a low estimate of 10.18. The median estimate represents a +49.14% increase from the last price of 12.74.
The world's largest cruise line operator is trading 126% higher in 2023. It might not be too late to hop aboard. The waves keep rising for Carnival (CCL -6.60%). Shares of the world's largest cruise line operator have more than doubled this year, and the Wall Street accolades keep coming.
Given its recovering revenue levels, Carnival should survive. Nonetheless, its ability for near-term prosperity appears seriously in doubt. As significant portions of the debt mature in 2026 and beyond, Carnival could find itself in a deeper debt trap.
For the fiscal year, Carnival forecasts an adjusted loss of 4-12 cents a share. Carnival guided fiscal 2023 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) between $4.1 billion to $4.2 billion, which includes a $125 million hit due to fuel prices.
If you wonder whether cruise ships have jails, the answer is yes. Jails are called brigs on a cruise ship and tend only to be used in serious circumstances when no other options are available. Cabin arrest is typically used before the brig is needed. Find out more about us here.