International airfare remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic given low supply of seats, high demand and overall higher costs, including high jet fuel prices, Berg said. A report by Hopper forecast airfare to Europe over the next six months to be 24% higher than pre-pandemic, on average.
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“The price of air travel continues to prove the most prominent challenge, as airlines grow flight capacity to ensure the volume required meets demand.” With the worst of the pandemic behind us, increased flight prices are being driven by a perfect storm of other factors, chief among which is global travel demand.
Domestic airline prices are on the decline in 2023, finally retreating after spiking just a year ago. International fares are still high. After soaring in 2022, prices for domestic airline tickets are on the descent.
Typically, the best time to book a flight is one to two months out for domestic trips. And for international flights, the best time to book is six to eight months out. However, there are many factors that can lead to an increase (or decrease) in the price of an airline ticket.
It mostly comes down to supply and demand. Demand is contributing to higher prices as travel continues to surge post-pandemic, Berg said. Sustained strong demand in 2023 continues to put additional pressure on prices, especially to and within regions where travel has only recently reopened like parts of Asia.
Airfares have dropped from July to August by nearly 3%. Perhaps even more significant is the stark drop over the past year. August 2023 U.S. airfares averaged 13% lower than what they were in August 2022. Things get especially interesting when compared to pre-pandemic prices.
Tuesdays and Wednesdays are the cheapest days to fly domestically. The cheapest days to depart if you're flying within the U.S. are midweek — generally Tuesday or Wednesday. For economy tickets, Tuesdays are about 24% lower than peak prices on Sundays, which translates to savings of about $85 per ticket.
The late fall and winter months—from mid to late October through mid-to-late March—are often the cheapest time to fly to Europe (though fares can spike in December).
Pent-up demand and inflated fuel prices are partly to blame for the sudden spike in costs. But the algorithms airlines use to determine ticket prices have also played a role.
According to Google Flights and Kayak statistics, these are the best time to book a flight abroad, depending on your destination: Europe: 129 days on average, or anywhere between 50 and 170 days out. Mexico and the Caribbean: 59 days on average, or anywhere between 37 and 87 days out. Asia: 8 months out.
Average fares are currently 36% higher than they were 12 months ago. (Adjusting for inflation, airfare is up 24%.) In 2023, I expect that to reverse and year-over-year fares to fall.
Now, the day of the week you choose to travel does make a difference in the best time to buy flights. In 2023, the cheapest day of the week to fly is Wednesday. Flying on Wednesday will save you almost $100 versus Sunday – the most expensive day to fly.
On average, Google Flights recommends booking your flight 52 days out for domestic travel in November during Thanksgiving, as this is when airfare, on average, is at its cheapest. However, prices are historically lowest anywhere between 36 and 74 days before departure.
“For international flights — [it's] four to 10 months.” If you're traveling during an off-peak season, you're going to want to look at airfares one to three months in advance for domestic flights, and two to eight months ahead of the flight for international trips.