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Can Northern Lights be predicted?

Hours to Days: It is possible to predict geomagnetic activity and aurora a day or so in advance by detecting solar coronal holes on the sun and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) near the sun.



Yes, the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) can be predicted, but the accuracy depends on the "timeframe" of the forecast. Short-term predictions—valid for about 30 to 60 minutes—are very accurate and are based on real-time data from satellites like the DSCOVR and ACE, which sit between the Earth and the Sun. These satellites measure the speed and density of the solar wind as it passes them; once the wind hits the satellite, scientists know exactly when it will reach Earth's atmosphere. Medium-term predictions (3 days) are based on "Solar Flares" or "Coronal Mass Ejections" (CMEs) observed on the Sun's surface; if a flare is aimed at Earth, we know an aurora is likely in 48 to 72 hours. Long-term predictions (27 days) are based on the Sun's rotation, as certain "coronal holes" that spew solar wind often persist for several rotations. Forecasters use the Kp-index, a scale from 0 to 9, to indicate expected geomagnetic activity. However, even with a high Kp-index, local weather is the ultimate "un-predictor"; if it is cloudy, you won't see the lights regardless of how active they are. For the best results, enthusiasts use apps like "My Aurora Forecast" which combine solar data with local cloud cover maps.

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The best time to see the Northern Lights is on clear nights around midnight during the Aurora season starting at the end of August and finishing by mid-April. However, if you are at a lower latitude and there is a big solar storm, you can enjoy the Aurora even during the summer months, like June or July.

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Norway is often ranked as the best destination to see the Northern Lights; and so it is only appropriate that we begin this list with the Aurora Borealis capital that is Tromsø. The gateway to the Arctic Circle, Tromsø is a whimsical city surrounded by the white peaks of Northern Norway.

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