Only 10 tropical storms and three hurricanes have struck the U.S. during November going back to 1851, he says, so on average such a landfall would happen about every 10 to 15 years. There are some years that are true outliers.
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According to the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), hurricane season in the Caribbean runs from June 1 through November 30 and normally peaks in August and September. The Caribbean region is a part of the Atlantic hurricane season, which also impacts Florida and other parts of the coastal southern United States.
Historically, any November storms that do hit the U.S. have tended to strike Florida because they most commonly form in the nearby western Caribbean, Truchelut says. The most recent November hurricane to hit the state was Kate, which struck the Florida panhandle on November 22, 1985, as a category 2 storm.
NOAA's update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).