Flying in airplanes is a case in point. You'd think that you could just find out the numbers—the odds—and that would be it. The annual risk of being killed in a plane crash for the average American is about 1 in 11 million. On that basis, the risk looks pretty small.

The likelihood of two commercial aircraft colliding in mid-air is extremely low, estimated at less than one in several hundred million flights. This incredible safety record is maintained through a "layers of protection" strategy. First, Air Traffic Control (ATC) ensures strict vertical and horizontal separation. Second, all commercial jets are equipped with the Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS), which acts as an electronic failsafe. If two planes get too close, TCAS units "talk" to each other; one pilot is commanded to climb while the other is commanded to descend. Ground-based collisions (runway incursions) are statistically more common but still rare, occurring roughly once in every 30,000 to 50,000 takeoffs and usually resulting in minor "fender benders" rather than catastrophes. In 2026, the integration of NextGen satellite tracking and AI-driven runway monitoring systems has further reduced these risks, making aviation the safest mode of long-distance transportation in human history.