How long until the Great Salt Lake dries up?

According to a recent study by Brigham Young University, it's possible that Great Salt Lake could dry up completely in the next five years.



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A recent report found that the lake could essentially disappear within five years. As a key stopover for migrating birds, the lake's loss could undermine whole ecosystems. These salty lakes occur in so-called endorheic basins—places where there is no outlet for the water to flow out to sea.

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Water experts say it's going to take more than one big year to fill the Great Salt Lake. SALT LAKE CITY — Ever since The Great Salt Lake hit its lowest water level on record in November 2022, concerns over things like arsenic in the exposed lake bed have only grown.

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So just how bad is it, really? A new scientific report warns the lake is on track to disappear in the next five years, unless water use is cut by as much as 50% annually.

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All of this winter's rain and snow that fell directly into the Great Salt Lake increased the water level there by three feet.

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Within years, the lake's ecosystems could collapse and millions will be exposed to toxic dust contained within the drying lakebed, unless drastic steps are taken to cut water use. A team of 32 scientists and conservationists caution that the lake could decline beyond recognition in just five years.

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Recreation in, and around, the lake The best place to swim or float in the lake is at Antelope Island State Park, where white oolitic sand beaches provide easy access to the lake without the brine flies that are prevalent on other areas of the shoreline. The beach area also has showers to rinse off the salty water.

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The Great Salt Lake is the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere and the eighth-largest terminal lake in the world. It lies in the northern part of the U.S. state of Utah and has a substantial impact upon the local climate, particularly through lake-effect snow.



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Due to its shallowness (an average of 14 feet deep and a maximum of 35 feet deep), the water level can fall dramatically during dry years and rise during wet years. When snowpack melts in the spring, the lake usually rises about 2 feet. However, record snowpack in 2023 triggered a rise of 5.5 feet!

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One of the world's largest hypersaline lakes, the Great Salt Lake is on the verge of collapse due to climate change, drought, and population pressures that have reduced inflows and shrunk the lake by more than two-thirds.

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The Great Salt Lake is home to many important biological and wildlife species, from archaea, to bacteria, to phytoplankton (400+ species). Perhaps the three most apparent species that can be seen with the naked eye are brine shrimp (tons), brine flies (billions) and birds (millions).

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With a salinity level over 40 percent, Don Juan is significantly saltier than most of the other hypersaline lakes around the world. The Dead Sea has a salinity of 34 percent; the Great Salt Lake varies between 5 and 27 percent. Earth's oceans have an average salinity of 3.5 percent.

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The shallow bottom of Great Salt Lake supports a microbial carpet that harness the sun's energy through the process of photosynthesis. This carpet is made up of a community of microbes, including several types of cyanobacteria (also known as blue-green algae), algae and other organisms.

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Because of the abundant algae and halophiles, as well as the high salinity, the lake does not support fish — but it teems with brine shrimp and brine flies, which provide essential nutrition for migrating birds.

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The low lake level and increasing salinity threaten to disrupt economic mainstays like agriculture, tourism, mineral extraction and brine shrimp harvesting. Exposed sediments can also reduce air quality and so threaten public health.

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