How long until the Salt Lake dries up?

According to a recent study by Brigham Young University, it's possible that Great Salt Lake could dry up completely in the next five years.



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Within years, the lake's ecosystems could collapse and millions will be exposed to toxic dust contained within the drying lakebed, unless drastic steps are taken to cut water use. A team of 32 scientists and conservationists caution that the lake could decline beyond recognition in just five years.

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Water experts say it's going to take more than one big year to fill the Great Salt Lake. SALT LAKE CITY — Ever since The Great Salt Lake hit its lowest water level on record in November 2022, concerns over things like arsenic in the exposed lake bed have only grown.

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So just how bad is it, really? A new scientific report warns the lake is on track to disappear in the next five years, unless water use is cut by as much as 50% annually.

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SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) — The Utah Division of Water Resources is sharing good news about the impacts all the rain is having on the Great Salt Lake, whose water levels reached a historic low last year.

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The shallow bottom of Great Salt Lake supports a microbial carpet that harness the sun's energy through the process of photosynthesis. This carpet is made up of a community of microbes, including several types of cyanobacteria (also known as blue-green algae), algae and other organisms.

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A recent report found that the lake could essentially disappear within five years. As a key stopover for migrating birds, the lake's loss could undermine whole ecosystems.

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Even in 'wet' years, conservation, policy changes are paramount to restore the lake
  1. Leverage the wet years.
  2. Set a lake elevation range goal.
  3. Invest in conservation.
  4. Invest in water monitoring and modeling.
  5. Develop a holistic water management plan.
  6. Request an in-depth analysis of policy options.


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The Great Salt Lake is the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere and the eighth-largest terminal lake in the world. It lies in the northern part of the U.S. state of Utah and has a substantial impact upon the local climate, particularly through lake-effect snow.



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Lake Levels Due to its shallowness (an average of 14 feet deep and a maximum of 35 feet deep), the water level can fall dramatically during dry years and rise during wet years. When snowpack melts in the spring, the lake usually rises about 2 feet. However, record snowpack in 2023 triggered a rise of 5.5 feet!

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Most recent data within water-surface elevations show a downward trend. With climate change and Utah's ever growing human population, we expect this negative trend to continue. In fact, it is estimated that the lake is 11 feet lower due to human diversions.

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One of the world's largest hypersaline lakes, the Great Salt Lake is on the verge of collapse due to climate change, drought, and population pressures that have reduced inflows and shrunk the lake by more than two-thirds.

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Recreation in, and around, the lake The best place to swim or float in the lake is at Antelope Island State Park, where white oolitic sand beaches provide easy access to the lake without the brine flies that are prevalent on other areas of the shoreline. The beach area also has showers to rinse off the salty water.

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The Great Salt Lake is home to many important biological and wildlife species, from archaea, to bacteria, to phytoplankton (400+ species). Perhaps the three most apparent species that can be seen with the naked eye are brine shrimp (tons), brine flies (billions) and birds (millions).

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Great Salt Lake is between 3.5 and 8 times saltier than the ocean. The organisms that live in the water have special adaptations that allow them to survive such saline conditions. Air blocks much of the sun's DNA-damaging ultraviolet light from reaching the surface of the earth.

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The saltiest of the Great Salt Lake's water sits on the bottom of the lake. The heavy brine traps organic material (i.e., algae and plant and animal remains) and gases at the bottom of the lake.

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“Impressive winter precipitation and record-breaking snowpack have undoubtedly improved the situation of Great Salt Lake,” Hasenyager said. “However, it's important to note that it will take much more than one above-average winter to fully replenish the lake's water levels and address our long-term challenges.”

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The precipitous drop in water levels, which has shrunk the Great Salt Lake's footprint by half in the last decades, stems from a two-fold problem: Climate change has decimated the mountain streams that feed the lake, while demand for that same freshwater has ballooned for new development, agriculture and industry.

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