How low can Lake Mead go?

Lake Mead's dead pool levels are 895 feet above sea level, but power generation may cease at 950 feet, according to the National Parks service. Lake Mead's water levels have been forecast to drop as low as 992 feet by the end of July 2024, with experts predicting that dead pool may be reached in the next few years.



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Lake Mead's elevation is shown as feet above sea level. Lake Mead hit its all-time low (after initial filling in the 1930s) last year on July 26 when it fell to 1,040.74 feet.

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If the reservoir dips below 895 feet (272.8 meters) – about 150 feet (45 meters) lower than where it is now – Lake Mead would reach what's called dead-pool level. Dead pool is when water in a reservoir drops so low that it can't flow downstream from the dam.

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Lake Mead expected to have gained 20 feet of water by end of 2023. By the end of the year, the water level at Lake Mead is expected to be at least 20 feet higher than it was in January, according to a Bureau of Reclamation forecast released this week.

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It would actually take six more years of heavy rainfall in a row to refill the Lake Mead reservoir completely. Time is ticking to solve the problem before future droughts dry up the lake completely. Without irrigation, farmland like this in California and other western states would revert to the desert.

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Lake Powell and Lake Mead are unlikely to refill for another 50 years - and would need SIX consecutive years of deadly atmospheric rivers to replenish.

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The water elevation in Lake Mead is around 1,040 feet above sea level. At 950 feet, Hoover Dam will be at its lowest point to be able produce power, according to the US Bureau of Reclamation.

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Mead reaches dead pool at 895 feet. If Lake Powell reaches dead pool, the US Bureau of Reclamation—which declined our interview requests—would be unable to meet its obligation to deliver water downstream to Lake Mead. In which case, 40 million people would be affected.

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The last time Lake Mead was at maximum capacity, reaching an elevation of about 1,220 feet near the dam, was in 1983 and 1999, NASA notes.

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When the snow eventually begins to melt, gravity will take over. As the water flows down from higher elevations, it begins a long journey that does not end at Lake Mead. According to the Las Vegas Valley Water District (LVVWD) the water will slowly seep into the ground.

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Investments to enhance system conservation and improved hydrology have led to significant improvements for Lake Mead this year, the federal government announced Tuesday, after the lake hit historic lows last year and the remains of several bodies were found.

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“While the amount of precipitation received in the lower basin and from tributary inflows helps, the greatest source of water for Lake Mead is still snow melt and flows from the upper basin.”

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Without Lake Mead, Las Vegas would lose access to 90 percent of its water sources. If Lake Mead were to reach dead pool, it would technically still be able to supply drinking water to Las Vegas. But there will not be enough water for agricultural activities.

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The water levels for Lake Mead are projected to reach slightly over 1,065 feet by January 2024, according to the Bureau of Reclamation, in large part due to an extremely wet winter that eased the effects of the longstanding drought. In October 2022, the water levels were at a historic low, at roughly 1,046 feet.

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However, it is important to note that the Hoover Dam is a critical infrastructure, and shutting it down would be unlikely unless it's an emergency situation or for maintenance purposes. For more information on how the Hoover Dam works and the effects of it potentially shutting down, keep reading.

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Lake Mead has dropped by 70% due to droughts in the West and it will take many years to refill again, naturally. The reservoir is vitally important to millions of people as a source of water, electricity, and recreation.

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Studies show that a project like this would be possible, though it would take decades of construction and billions of dollars. Maybe even trillions.

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