It is difficult to predict an exact timeline for when Venice will be underwater, as the process of subsidence and sea level rise is gradual and affected by various factors. However, experts have suggested that if current trends continue, the city could be at risk of disappearing beneath the waves by as early as 2100.

The "survival" of Venice is a race against accelerating sea-level rise and land subsidence. As of 2026, the MOSE barrier system—a series of 78 yellow gates at the lagoon's inlets—has been successfully protecting the city from "Acqua Alta" (high water) events. However, scientific projections from the IPCC and local researchers suggest that if global sea levels rise by 50cm or more, the MOSE barriers would need to be closed so frequently that the lagoon's ecosystem would stagnate, potentially becoming a "dead sea." Current estimates suggest the city remains "viable" in its current form until at least 2050 to 2100, but significant structural adaptations or a permanent "closed lagoon" model may be required by the mid-century. While Venice is not literally "sinking" into the abyss tomorrow, the frequency of flooding is expected to increase significantly after 2030, making 2026 a critical year for international "Save Venice" engineering projects aimed at reinforcing the city's ancient foundations against the inevitable rise of the Adriatic.