How much will Lake Michigan rise with global warming?
That study found Lake Superior is expected to rise on average by 7.5 inches while levels on the Lake Michigan-Huron system is projected to increase 17 inches by 2050 due to climate change.
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Climate change will exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes, including changes in the range and distribution of some species, increases in invasive species and harmful blooms of algae, and declines in beach health. Ice cover declines will lengthen the commercial navigation season.
According to the average of their simulation ensemble, by 2040–2049, the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase by 0.19, 0.44, and 0.28 m, respectively, relative to 2010–2019 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.
It is just one of the Great Lakes experiencing warming temperatures. All of the Great Lakes—Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario—have been warming for the past several decades. Scientists put this mainly down to climate change.
For example, Lake Michigan takes most of the summer to heat up and reaches its warmest point by late summer or early fall. Then, as we head into winter, the lake retains much of the heat that it gained during the summer.
The primary driver of water levels are precipitation, evaporation, and river flow into the lakes, also referred to as net basin supply. The long term trend for both precipitation and evaporation has been upward over the last several decades.
Threats to the Great Lakes' ecosystems, include invasive species, climate change, pollution, and habitat destruction. Climate change affects water temperatures, weather patterns, and lake levels.
According to the average of their simulation ensemble, by 2040–2049, the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase by 0.19, 0.44, and 0.28 m, respectively, relative to 2010–2019 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.
Freezing temperatures force the lake to develop an ice shelf. On windy days, waves are driven toward the shore. As these waves crash into the shoreline, they also hit the ice shelf. This pushes the water up through the air.
The Great Lakes are struggling under the combined weight of many ailments, from invasive species and toxic chemicals to the nutrient runoffs that fuel Lake Erie's chronic algae problem. And in many cases, climate change is making it worse.
You can read more about this as well as other myths about water level fluctuations in this blog. Over the next 6 months, Lake Michigan water levels are predicted to be below last year's levels, but remain above long term average water levels indicated by the dashed blue line in the image below.
Over the past two years, the water level declines have been a little more than average and the water level increases have been less than average. This is especially true on Lakes Michigan and Huron.
While the Great Lakes will freeze over partially during the winter, they almost never freeze completely. This is mainly due to their size. The Great Lakes are too large to freeze over entirely on a regular basis.
The lowest monthly average lake level for the representative network of gages on Lake Michigan/Huron, 576.02 feet IGLD 1985 International Great Lakes Datum, occurred in January 2013. The highest monthly average lake level for the network of gages, 582.35 feet IGLD 1985, occurred in October 1986.
If you're ready to play in Lake Michigan, know that water temperatures can vary quite a bit along a stretch of coastline. In West Michigan, the beach near Duck Lake State Park in Muskegon County is warmest spot. The water temperature there is a balmy 70 degrees.
Lake Erie is the shallowest, warmest, and most productive of the Great Lakes. Three distinct basins provide a variety of offshore habitats. The Detroit River, Maumee River, and smaller tributaries drain into the western basin, which averages 24 feet deep and contains extremely nutrient-rich water.