Rising temperatures exacerbate algal blooms in Lake Erie, leading to bacteria-polluted drinking water in Toledo, Ohio, potentially causing a number of harmful health conditions for half a million residents.
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In the first half of 2023, Lake Erie's water levels are expected to be lower than in 2022 by anywhere from 6 inches to 14 inches, according to predictions from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers included in its December 2022 water level summary.
According to the average of their simulation ensemble, by 2040–2049, the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase by 0.19, 0.44, and 0.28 m, respectively, relative to 2010–2019 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.
Lake Erie has a lake retention time of 2.6 years, the shortest of all the Great Lakes. The lake's surface area is 9,910 square miles (25,667 km2). Lake Erie's water level fluctuates with the seasons as in the other Great Lakes.
These lake surface temperatures are projected to rise by as much as 7°F by 2050 and 12.1°F by 2100. Higher temperatures, increased precipitation, and lengthened growing seasons are likely to result in increased production of blue-green and toxic algae in the lakes.
Opening of the Lake Erie - Niagara River Ice Boom for 2022-2023 ice season is planned to begin as early as March 2, 2023. More information can be found in the Lake Erie - Niagara River Ice Boom Opening media advisory for the 2022-2023 ice season.
While there is much to celebrate about the progress made to protect the Lake Erie, there is still much work to be done. The excessive nutrient load running into Lake Erie continues to cause unacceptable harmful algal blooms (HABs) every summer in the Western Basin.
The Great Lakes are struggling under the combined weight of many ailments, from invasive species and toxic chemicals to the nutrient runoffs that fuel Lake Erie's chronic algae problem. And in many cases, climate change is making it worse.
All five of the Great Lakes are high above sea level. As shown in the elevation profile below, Lake Ontario is the lowest in elevation, 243 feet above sea level; Lake Superior breaks 600 feet. So they are in no direct risk of rising sea level. The biggest drop in elevation is the famous Niagara Falls.
Next year is likely to be even hotter. “We're anticipating that not only is 2023 going to be possibly a record warm year, but we anticipate that 2024 will be warmer still,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.