According to at least one analyst, Airbnb is in a state of “collapse” due to declining revenues. This in turn could filter down into the broader housing market by pushing prices lower — or maybe not.
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According to a recent report, revenue per available listing (RevPAL) from Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB)-listed properties is down by 35% or more in 15 major U.S. cities.
The cities mentioned — which also included San Antonio, Nashville, Denver, New Orleans, Seattle and Orlando — all saw revenues drop at least 34.8% from May 2022 to May 2023, according to Gerli's calculations. The city with the biggest decline was Sevierville, Tennessee, which suffered a drop of 47.6%.
These Airbnb owners are getting ready to sell because of Airbnb bust, a downturn in the short-term rental market that started in the second half of 2022, with Airbnb operators in some cities facing a 50% decline in revenue.
A 2021 study of more than 125,000 Airbnb complaints on Twitter found that 72% of the issues were related to poor customer service and 22% were related to scams.
These declining revenues are the result of a slowdown in post-pandemic travel demand to go along with a massive increase in Airbnb supply, trends which are now causing many Airbnb operators to lose money on their rental.
Airbnb managed to stay afloat through the COVID-19 pandemic, but new challenges have emerged, including a drop in demand for short-term rentals in the U.S. over the increased cost of living and less desire to work from home in states like Montana, Texas and Tennessee, according to Gerli.
Considering the current trends and market analysis, it can be concluded that while the Airbnb market has witnessed a surge in listings and increased competition, it is not necessarily oversaturated. The market continues to exhibit healthy demand, and certain locations remain strong and resilient.
And 82% believe this is a good money-making strategy. Airbnb hosts make, on average, about $924 a month, according to research from low-interest lender Earnest.
With a strong emphasis on trust-building between strangers and a growing appeal among Gen Zs, Airbnb is poised for a future that could include everything from short-term stays to long-term housing subscriptions.
So why is it losing money? Some recent large expenses have eaten into Airbnb's once-profitable bottom line including safety, tech, marketing, and acquisitions.
The forecasted Airbnb price at the end of 2023 is $141 - and the year to year change +45%. The rise from today to year-end: +13%. In the first half of 2024, the Airbnb price will climb to $160; in the second half, the price would add $2 and close the year at $162, which is +30% to the current price.
But many hosts have recently prioritized their own direct-booking websites after a turbulent past two months, as the coronavirus pandemic spurred widespread cancellations and many grew unhappy with Airbnb's reimbursement policies.
According to the cited AllTheRooms data, in some cities revenue dipped nearly 50%. The narrative quickly became that Airbnb's business model was at risk, and everything from the tumultuous housing market, to municipal restrictions, to even stickler hosts were to blame.
That glut has led to as much as a 13% decline in host revenue in 32 of the top 50 largest short-term rental markets in the country in the first half of this year, according to AirDNA. (For its part, Airbnb says the typical host made an average of more than $14,000 in 2022, up almost 88% from 2019.)
Who are Airbnb's competitors? Airbnb competitors include websites like Vrbo, Booking.com, Tripadvisor, Agoda, Expedia, TUI Villas, TravelStaytion, HomeToGo, Plum Guide, and Google. Not all of them are vacation rental marketplaces.
The decline in Airbnb's numbers is evident, leading to a 10 percent drop in the stock market. The company has projected one of the lowest growth rates in its history after the surge of digital nomads during the post-pandemic period, when remote work became more prevalent.
Even if the potential rewards of owning a short-term rental are exciting, there's always risk involved. One is property damage. Normal wear and tear is expected, but many owners worry their guests will do more severe damage to the property — from breaking furniture to causing water damage.
Hence, the flexibility and reach of Airbnb are additional reasons to consider it as a disruptive innovation platform. In general, there are many regulatory hurdles and huge upfront costs in building new hotel properties. However, Airbnb does not need to build a new property to provide accommodations at a new location.
Bottom line. Buying an Airbnb property can be lucrative, but there are some things to consider before investing. For starters, be sure to research the laws and regulations about short-term rentals in your area, as some cities restrict or even prohibit them.