Is Lake Superior dropping?

Minor changes are expected over the next month with lake levels forecast to drop about two inches by Sept. 11, 2023. The water level on Lake Superior dropped one inch from July 11, 2023 to Aug. 11, 2023.



As of early 2026, Lake Superior's water levels are currently in a downward trend compared to the record-breaking highs seen between 2014 and 2020, but the lake is not "drying up" in a catastrophic sense. The water level of the largest Great Lake is primarily driven by "Net Basin Supply," which is the balance of precipitation and runoff versus evaporation. Recent years have seen slightly drier winters and warmer summers, which has increased evaporation rates and led to a gradual decline toward "long-term average" levels. In 2026, the lake is approximately 6 to 10 inches lower than it was during its 2019 peak, which has actually been a relief for coastal property owners who were previously struggling with severe shoreline erosion and flooding. However, scientists at the International Lake Superior Board of Control note that these levels are highly cyclical; a single heavy "snowpack" winter can cause the lake to rise rapidly. While the current trend is "dropping," it is more of a return to a healthy "normal" after a decade of unusually high levels, rather than a permanent loss of water volume due to climate-driven depletion.

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