Japan is prone to earthquakes due to its geography along the active Pacific Ring of Fire, where multiple tectonic plates converge and interact. Experts say there is a 70 per cent chance of a major earthquake hitting Tokyo within the next 30 years. For more on this story, watch the video in the media player above.

Geologically, Tokyo is located in one of the most seismically active regions in the world, and experts agree that it is "due" for a major earthquake, though exact timing is impossible to predict. In a comprehensive government report released in late 2025, seismologists estimated a 70% probability of a magnitude 7 "Tokyo Epicenter" earthquake occurring within the next 30 years. This hypothetical "Big One" is a central focus of Japan’s national disaster prevention strategy. However, Tokyo is also the global "gold standard" for earthquake resilience; since the 2011 disasters, the city has undergone massive infrastructure upgrades, including seismic retrofitting of nearly all ministry buildings and the installation of "seismic circuit breakers" to prevent fires—the leading cause of fatalities in urban quakes. While the threat is real and significant, Tokyo’s rigorous building codes and regular "Disaster Prevention Day" drills make it one of the safest places to be during a tremor. Residents and tourists in 2026 are advised to keep an emergency kit and follow the real-time alerts provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.