Is wake turbulence predictable?

Pilots review en-route conditions before departure, which include turbulence charts. This, alongside checking with center controllers about ride conditions while in the air, helps inform pilots about the flight conditions. Unlike other forms of turbulence, wake turbulence is predictable.



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Since the turbulence from a “dirty” aircraft configuration hastens wake decay, the greatest vortex strength occurs when the generating aircraft is HEAVY, CLEAN, and SLOW. In rare instances, a wake encounter could cause catastrophic inflight structural damage to an aircraft.

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These distances apply when one aircraft is operating directly behind (within 1/2 NM laterally) another, or is crossing behind, at the same level and up to 1000 feet below. In this same situation when the separation will be less than 2 minutes, radar controllers should issue a caution of possible wake turbulence.

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You should ensure that an interval of at least 2 minutes has elapsed before your takeoff or landing. En route VFR (thousand-foot altitude plus 500 feet). Avoid flight below and behind a large aircraft's path.

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Wake turbulence from a large enough aircraft will cause the one following to flip and possibly crash into the ground.

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On Monday 3 March 1997 at 1014 hours, privately owned and operated Cessna 185 encountered wake turbulence from previous departing aircraft, the pilot lost control of the aircraft at a height from which recovery was not possible and the aircraft descended to the ground.

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Wake turbulence is not just common, it's automatic. The magnitude at which it can affect another aircraft is less so and determined by how heavy an aircraft is, and how fast it is going. You can experience a low magnitude wake turbulence in a small private aircraft if you can execute a tight, level turn.

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While pilots can't actually see turbulence, they often know what is coming up, thanks to reports from other planes, weather reports, and radar equipment. However, clear air turbulence (severe turbulence occurring in cloudless areas) can sometimes catch pilots off guard.

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Turbulence is a sudden and sometimes violent shift in airflow. Those irregular motions in the atmosphere create air currents that can cause passengers on an airplane to experience annoying bumps during a flight, or it can be severe enough to throw an airplane out of control. (The pilots) aren't scared at all.

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It's almost unheard of for turbulence to cause a crash, but it can lead to costly repairs for carriers. Usually, the damage is to cabin components like seats and overhead bins when luggage falls out or people hit them.

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Yes, weather radar can help predict convective turbulence and clear air turbulence. Most commercial aircraft now pack weather radar – from the Airbus A321 to the Boeing 777.

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Routes with the most turbulence
  • New York to London. One of the most popular routes which experience turbulence is flying from New York to London (and also London to New York). ...
  • Seoul to Dallas. ...
  • Flying into certain airports near the equator. ...
  • Flying into Reno, Nevada. ...
  • London to South Africa.


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Severe turbulence, he added, is “quite rare — only 0.1% of the atmosphere at 40,000 feet has severe turbulence in it, so if you're on a plane it's very unlikely that your plane will hit that 0.1%.”

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A light quartering tailwind requires maximum caution, as it presents a worst case scenario where a wake vortex could more likely be present along the final approach and TDZ. Pilots should be alert to larger aircraft upwind from their approach and takeoff flightpaths.

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Light turbulence momentarily causes slight changes in altitude and/or attitude or a slight bumpiness. Occupants of the airplane may feel a slight strain against their seat belts. Moderate turbulence is similar to light turbulence but somewhat more intense. There is, however, no loss of control of the airplane.

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Pilots know that flying safely in threatening turbulence requires slowing to VA, the maneuvering speed. This assures that the airplane will stall before its limit load factor can be exceeded. Such a stall is momentary and protects the structure against damaging loads.

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Avoid wake turbulence by flying far enough behind other aircraft. Adhere to the ATC spacing buffer, especially when taking off or landing behind a “heavy” or “super” aircraft. Pilots can also avoid wake turbulence by flying above, below, or to the side of the path taken by other planes while at cruise altitude.

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From a practical point, no, a modern airliner will not lose a wing due to turbulence. Modern airlines are very tough and designed to withstand extreme turbulence. In theory, it might be possible. But to my knowledge, it has not happened to any jet airliner.

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When an aircraft experiences turbulence, the plane can drop or change altitude suddenly. This is why pilots always caution passengers to buckle up and stay seated when they are experiencing flight turbulence. The sudden movements put passengers at risk.

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