No, Yellowstone is not based on any real events or people that exist in real life. However, the creator of the show explained that the issues that are explored in the show are inspired by problems that exist in western mountain states in the US.
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McCarthy clarified that McConaughey's role is lined up, no matter what happens to Costner's character. Although it's unclear if Kevin Costner will be returning, Matthew McConaughey will be taking on his own role in the untitled spinoff, not replacing Costner in 'YellowStone.