Where or when are cyclone most likely to happen?

The ocean surface reaches its maximum temperature several weeks after the solar radiation maximum, so most tropical cyclones occur during the late summer to early fall—that is, from July to September in the Northern Hemisphere and from January to March in the Southern Hemisphere.



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The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin is from June 1 to November 30, but tropical cyclone activity sometimes occurs before and after these dates, respectively. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.

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NOAA's update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

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Tropical storms have formed in every month outside of hurricane season, and there have been a few hurricanes too. May is the most active month outside the official season, with seven named storms occurring during the past 10 years, including two in 2012 - Alberto and Beryl.

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NOAA's update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

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The U.S. is by far the king of tornadoes and other severe storms. “It really starts with kind of two things. Number one is the Gulf of Mexico. And number two is elevated terrain to the west,” said Victor Gensini, a Northern Illinois University meteorology professor.

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