Air fares have risen because of an imbalance between demand and supply. Aviation measures supply by examining the number of seats in the market; in the case of Australian domestic flights, over the six months to June 2023 there were still 6.5% fewer seats in the market than before Covid.

The high cost of flights to Australia in 2023 (and continuing into early 2026) is driven by a combination of capacity constraints, high fuel surcharges, and "profit maximization." Following the pandemic, airlines were slow to restore the full number of seats to the Australian market, which is a "long-thin" route that requires massive amounts of fuel and specialized long-haul aircraft. With fewer flights available and "pent-up demand" from travelers, airlines like Qantas and United could keep fares high. Furthermore, jet fuel prices remained volatile, and many carriers added significant surcharges to cover the cost of 14+ hour flights. In 2026, another factor is the shortage of new aircraft and pilots, which has limited the ability of low-cost carriers to enter the trans-Pacific market and drive down prices. Additionally, Australia’s major airports have high landing fees and slot constraints, which limits competition. While more capacity is slowly returning, the "new normal" for Australian airfare remains higher than 2019 levels due to the increased labor and operational costs facing the aviation industry globally.