Why are Great Lakes water levels so challenging to predict 1 5 years into the future?
Lake levels are governed by precipitation, runoff and evaporation, an equation that's extremely difficult to forecast over six months, let alone over several decades, according to scientists.
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Climate change's hotter temperatures and society's diversion of water have been shrinking the world's lakes by trillions of litres of water a year since the early 1990s. A close examination of nearly 2,000 of the world's largest lakes found they are losing about 21.5 trillion litres a year.
Threats to the Great Lakes' ecosystems, include invasive species, climate change, pollution, and habitat destruction. Climate change affects water temperatures, weather patterns, and lake levels.
Threats & ConservationThe source of toxic pollutants includes decades of industrial waste, raw sewage overflows, runoff from cities, and mining operations. Excess nutrients that throw the ecosystem out of balance enter the lakes from agricultural runoff and untreated sewage.
The outflows of Lake Superior and Lake Ontario are controlled to keep the lake levels within a specific range, near their long-term averages. Levels of Lake Superior have been regulated since 1921. Levels of Lake Ontario have been regulated since 1958.
No. People are not capable of changing things on that scale. We could easily pollute the water and make it undrinkable, but we can't drain the lakes, because there is just too much water there, and it's constantly refilled from too many sources, including rain and snow melt.
Next year is likely to be even hotter. “We're anticipating that not only is 2023 going to be possibly a record warm year, but we anticipate that 2024 will be warmer still,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.
Climate change is already taking a significant toll on the Great Lakes region. Rising temperatures exacerbate algal blooms in Lake Erie, leading to bacteria-polluted drinking water in Toledo, Ohio, potentially causing a number of harmful health conditions for half a million residents.
Climate change isn't only causing wildfires and massive heat waves, but it's drying up vital bodies of water such as the Great Salt Lake bordering the Salt Lake Valley.
A 2015 report to the Utah Legislature predicted demand for water in Utah could overtake supply by 2040. Today, scientists think that date will come much sooner. The Great Salt Lake is already losing an average of 1.2 million acre-feet annually, and it's on track to disappear entirely by 2028.