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Why is it so hot in the Caribbean 2023?

On June 6th, 2023, a high-pressure system from east of Puerto Rico combined with dust from the Sahara, increased humidity, and record-breaking Atlantic temperatures (likely exacerbated by climate change) to form a heat dome, which drove the local heat index to historic highs.



The extreme heat experienced in the Caribbean during 2023 was the result of a "perfect storm" of climatic factors, primarily driven by the transition into a strong El Niño event and record-breaking Atlantic sea surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, global temperatures tend to rise, and the Caribbean often experiences suppressed rainfall and higher-than-average heat. Simultaneously, the North Atlantic underwent a significant "marine heatwave," with water temperatures reaching levels typically seen in late summer as early as June. These warm waters acted as a giant radiator, preventing the air from cooling down at night and making the daytime heat feel much more oppressive. Additionally, a reduction in the amount of Saharan dust blowing across the Atlantic meant there was less "shading" of the ocean, allowing more solar radiation to penetrate and heat the water further. Climate change served as the underlying "force multiplier," raising the baseline temperature and making these extreme heat events more frequent and intense. This combination of natural cycles and long-term global warming created a record-setting year that stressed local coral reefs through massive bleaching events and impacted the health and daily lives of millions of Caribbean residents.

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Analyses with other temperature data — from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, among others — have also shown more than a 50 percent chance that 2023 will be the warmest on record. At the end of June, the nonprofit Berkeley Earth forecast an 81 percent chance of a record 2023.

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What month should you avoid in the Caribbean? Due to the risk of hurricanes, September and October are the months when it is wise to avoid the Caribbean.

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December. From mid-December it's peak season (and peak prices) in the Caribbean although you might find some deals at the start of the month. Some resorts try to tempt vacationers with deals ahead of the busy Christmas rush. Weather-wise it's warm and dry with little chance of any thunderstorms.

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By June, the hottest islands average 90 degrees Fahrenheit or 32 Celsius. They again include Aruba, Cancun, Cozumel, Curacao and Grand Cayman.

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Notably, all ocean basins have been experiencing significant warming since 1998, with more heat being transferred deeper into the ocean since 1990. To date, the ocean contains 90 percent of the heat from human-induced global warming, and the year 2022 was the warmest ever measured for the global ocean.

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