Why is September and October hurricane season?

31, with the warmest months being in July and August across the tropics, but the ocean waters take longer to heat up than air and retain heat longer and thus, the peak of the season is in September. This combined with a reduce in vertical wind shear and dry air, all mean more favorable conditions for tropical cyclones.



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NOAA's update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

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October averages 2.75 named storms, and it's not uncommon for hurricanes, and even major hurricanes, to form. This year, a nascent El Niño pattern could make high-altitude winds less favorable for development, but that should be offset by near-record warm sea surface temperatures.

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