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Will 2023 snowpack help Lake Mead?

The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December.



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Lake Mead expected to have gained 20 feet of water by end of 2023. By the end of the year, the water level at Lake Mead is expected to be at least 20 feet higher than it was in January, according to a Bureau of Reclamation forecast released this week.

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“While the amount of precipitation received from the recent storms in the lower basin and from tributary inflows helps, the greatest source of water for Lake Mead is still from snow melt and flows from the upper basin — especially from good winter snowpack from the west slope of the Rocky Mountains,” Hendrix said.

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The water levels for Lake Mead are projected to reach slightly over 1,065 feet by January 2024, according to the Bureau of Reclamation, in large part due to an extremely wet winter that eased the effects of the longstanding drought. In October 2022, the water levels were at a historic low, at roughly 1,046 feet.

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Under the Probable Maximum scenario, Lake Powell's physical elevation is projected to be 3,583.38 feet on December 31, 2023. With intervening flows between Lake Powell and Lake Mead of 1.35 maf in CY 2023, Lake Mead's physical elevation is projected to be 1,066.20 feet on December 31, 2023.

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Lake Mead's water levels currently stand at 1,050.71 feet as of May 8. According to a Maximum Probable Inflow 24 month report released in April 2023, Lake Mead's water levels could rise to 1,060.30 feet by the end of July 2023. This, in other words, is a best-case scenario for the drought-stricken reservoir.

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LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Television and social media videos of raging floodwaters after Tropical Storm Hilary lead the public to ask, “Does all that water help?” The answer is complicated, but officials say Hilary's direct effect on Lake Mead was “minor” and had more to do with reduced demand than anything else.

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It would actually take six more years of heavy rainfall in a row to refill the Lake Mead reservoir completely.

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“While the amount of precipitation received from the recent storms in the lower basin and from tributary inflows helps, the greatest source of water for Lake Mead is still from snow melt and flows from the upper basin — especially from good winter snowpack from the west slope of the Rocky Mountains,” Hendrix said.

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But that heavy rainfall likely had little effect on Lake Mead's water levels. The reservoir sat at about 1,063.4 feet in elevation when the rains started on Friday. By Monday night, it had ticked up to 1,063.8.

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Rain runoff into the tributaries that eventually feed into Lake Mead contributed about 112,000 acre-feet more water than what the bureau projected, which accounted for about 1.6 feet of the reservoir's rise, Helms said.

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The Bureau of Reclamation announced that the country's largest and second-largest reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, saw improved water levels but recovery back to a full pool is a long way away, if ever.

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Officials have warned that dead pool could be reached by 2025, if the lake continues drying up at the rate it is currently.

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Rainfall doesn't immediately add inches to the nation's largest reservoir. Lake Mead is enormous, and even the storm that dumped 8-10 inches of rain at Mt. Charleston covered a much smaller area than the lake. “We saw Mead's water level tick up a couple tenths of an inch.

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As crazy as it sounds, engineers say the idea is technically feasible. It would involve building a system of dams and pipelines to move the water uphill across multiple states over the Continental Divide. Gravity would then work in our favor to drop the water down to the Colorado River watershed.

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Lake Mead's water level continues to fall to historic lows, bringing the reservoir less than 150 feet away from “dead pool” — so low that water cannot flow downstream from the dam. The loss of water entirely from this source would be catastrophic.

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The Lake Mead problem could be resolved by draining Lake Powell and storing the water in Lake Mead. More than 5% of the water in the Colorado River evaporates off the surface of Lake Powell - which never should have been built.

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Dead pool conditions would mean the end of all electric production, as well as water, from the Colorado River. Electricity would not just be the only thing lost. Without Lake Mead, Las Vegas would lose access to 90 percent of its water sources.

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Based on the current forecast of 13.60 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the September 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3574.31 feet with approximately 8.85 maf in storage (38 percent of capacity).

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Lake Mead provides water to the states of Arizona, California, and Nevada as well as some of Mexico, providing sustenance to nearly 20 million people and large areas of farmland.

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