Will global warming raise the Great Lakes?

According to the average of their simulation ensemble, by 2040–2049, the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase by 0.19, 0.44, and 0.28 m, respectively, relative to 2010–2019 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.



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These lake surface temperatures are projected to rise by as much as 7°F by 2050 and 12.1°F by 2100. Higher temperatures, increased precipitation, and lengthened growing seasons are likely to result in increased production of blue-green and toxic algae in the lakes.

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According to the average of their simulation ensemble, by 2040–2049, the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase by 0.19, 0.44, and 0.28 m, respectively, relative to 2010–2019 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.

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Climate change is already taking a significant toll on the Great Lakes region. Rising temperatures exacerbate algal blooms in Lake Erie, leading to bacteria-polluted drinking water in Toledo, Ohio, potentially causing a number of harmful health conditions for half a million residents.

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Although the total volume in the lakes is vast, on average less than 1 percent of the waters of the Great Lakes is renewed annually by precipitation, surface water runoff, and inflow from groundwater sources.

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The Great Lakes are struggling under the combined weight of many ailments, from invasive species and toxic chemicals to the nutrient runoffs that fuel Lake Erie's chronic algae problem. And in many cases, climate change is making it worse.

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10% of the entire planet's fresh water are contained in one inland sea. The amount of snow that gets melted and runs into the Great Lakes each year is so vast, that there is zero chance of running low. Droughts don't exist up there. Here in Perth Western Australia we have a dam, little rain and treated water.

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That study found Lake Superior is expected to rise on average by 7.5 inches while levels on the Lake Michigan-Huron system is projected to increase 17 inches by 2050 due to climate change.

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Lake Michigan water levels are high and will keep rising, but nowhere near record levels.

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Pollution from over a century of intensive development remains in the sediment of many Great Lakes tributaries, harming fish and wildlife and leaving water unsafe for people. These sites are being cleaned up through the Great Lakes Legacy Act by the U.S. EPA in partnership with local, state, and private organizations.

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All five of the Great Lakes are high above sea level. As shown in the elevation profile below, Lake Ontario is the lowest in elevation, 243 feet above sea level; Lake Superior breaks 600 feet. So they are in no direct risk of rising sea level. The biggest drop in elevation is the famous Niagara Falls.

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The Great lakes are fed by rivers which get their water from rain or melting snow, neither is salty. The lakes then ultimately drain into the St. Lawrence River then the Atlantic Ocean. The water drained away is replenished by precipitation which does not contain salt.

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Lake Superior is among the fastest-warming lakes on the planet.

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In winter, the precipitation amounts decline in the colder air. A loss of water level basically comes down to more water flowing out and evaporating than falling as precipitation.

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The loss of water in December is therefore to be expected. Lake Superior declined 2 inches from November 30, 2022 to December 30, 2022. This is a fairly typical amount of water decline for December. It represents what sounds like a bunch of water: one inch of water on Lake Superior equally 550 billion gallons of water.

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While our growing zone might be reduced to a shorter No. 3 without the lake, our overall temperatures might increase, say the experts. “Spring and summer would definitely be warmer without the lake, but winters would be considerably colder,” says Dan.

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Lake Erie drains into Lake Ontario via the Niagara River. The entire system flows to the Atlantic Ocean via the St. Lawrence River. As it flows from its westernmost point in Duluth, Minnesota to the Atlantic Ocean, the waterway drops in elevation approximately 600 feet.

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Geology of Lake Inferior Lake Inferior is an underground lake that is located beneath Lake Superior. It is believed to be formed by a process known as karstification, which is the dissolution of limestone and dolomite rock. This process creates sinkholes, caves, and underground rivers and lakes.

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The water in the Great Lakes is owned by the general public according to the Public Trust Doctrine. The Public Trust Doctrine is an international legal theory – it applies in both Canada and the United States, so it applies to the entirety of the Great Lakes.

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The Great Lakes Compact — signed into law in 2008 by President George W. Bush — largely prohibits taking large quantities of water from the Great Lakes and basin's groundwater, smaller lakes, and rivers without the approval of all eight states and the input of Ontario and Quebec, which are both in the watershed.

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