While Japanese trains are world-renowned for their precision—often averaging a delay of less than one minute annually—they can be significantly late during rare "extraordinary" events. In early 2026, major lines in Tokyo like the Yamanote and Tokaido experienced delays of several hours due to power outages and heavy snowfall. When a Shinkansen is delayed by more than two hours, passengers are entitled to a full refund of the express surcharge, though this is a rare occurrence. For "standard" delays caused by heavy rain or signal issues, the delay might be 10 to 20 minutes. In 2026, the rail companies are highly efficient at providing "Delay Certificates" (Chien Shomeisho) for commuters to show their employers. If you are heading to the airport, a "safe" 2026 strategy is to allow an extra 45-minute buffer, as even the world's most reliable network can face the occasional "black swan" disruption.