How many pilots will be needed in the future?

In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.



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Boeing Forecast
Trusted by more than 100 aviation regulatory agencies worldwide, the current Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook concludes that the aviation industry will need to supply more than 602,000 commercial airline pilots worldwide over the next 20 years2.

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Over the coming years, there are likely to be many opportunities to work as a pilot. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the number of airline and commercial pilot positions to grow 13% by 2030 . This is faster than the expected average career growth.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says. There is cause for hope, however.

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We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. That still represents about 23% of the pilot workforce, so the problem is far from eliminated.

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Regarding magnitude, in our most likely scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the most extreme scenarios. Eventually, the impact of furloughs, retirements, and defections will create very real challenges for even some of the biggest carriers.

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Robotic pilots will probably take the position of human pilots, although a human pilot will still be needed to control the aircraft. AI or Robots can replace a pilot, but when? Aviation technology applications are not always created with human interaction in mind.

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In 2020, the number of pilots aged over 45 was around 16,000, while the demand for air travel has been growing strongly and consistently over the last decade. In total, it is estimated that around 81,000 additional pilots will be needed across the Americas between 2019 and 2029.

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Aside from the realities of the physics of flight, people will always want to be on the move. Demand for air travel will keep growing in the foreseeable future, according to IATA, whose recent figures show that demand is expected to reach 94% of 2019 levels in 2023 and will increase to 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.

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One of the major benefits of being a pilot is you can expect a hugely rewarding career; from taking your first solo flight, completing your first landing, flying to a new destination to overcoming challenges, every day is rewarding as a pilot in the cockpit.

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Yes, being a pilot is worth it for many students. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5% job growth for airline and commercial pilots over the next ten years. This is faster than the average growth for all occupations.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the median U.S. pilot salary at $211,790 in 2022. This means 50% of pilots earn more than this, and 50% earn less. However, there are pilots working for major airlines making more than $700,000 per year.

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