Will pilots be needed in 2040?

In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.



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But the need for pilots in general is growing. The Academy of Aviation estimates over 800,000 pilots will be needed over the next 20 years.

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Robotic pilots will probably take the position of human pilots, although a human pilot will still be needed to control the aircraft. AI or Robots can replace a pilot, but when? Aviation technology applications are not always created with human interaction in mind.

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Over the coming years, there are likely to be many opportunities to work as a pilot. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the number of airline and commercial pilot positions to grow 13% by 2030 . This is faster than the expected average career growth.

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Regarding magnitude, in our most likely scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the most extreme scenarios. Eventually, the impact of furloughs, retirements, and defections will create very real challenges for even some of the biggest carriers.

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Despite the short-term decline in the number of active pilots, analysis shows that the civil aviation industry will require more than 260,000 new pilots over the next decade. As air travel resumes progressively over the next several years, the industry will experience upward mandatory retirement and attrition rates.

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Job Outlook Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 4 percent from 2022 to 2032, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 16,800 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots ' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.

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But as air travel demand continues to recover in 2022, our most recent forecast now projects that demand for pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally between 2022 and 2024 — and continue to worsen over the next decade.

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There are many reasons why becoming a pilot is worth it. For starters, it's a career that offers great freedom and flexibility. Pilots can travel all around the world and experience different cultures, climates, and landscapes.

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Tsourdos says it is highly unlikely that we will have commercial flights without pilots any time soon. “The role of the pilots may change through the years, so they will be supervisors. I think from the safety and resilience point of view, it's unlikely they'll disappear,” he says.

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Europe. Although other regions require new pilots more urgently than Europe, the problem is still there, and it will gain momentum towards the end of 2024 into 2025, according to the interview by Airways Magazine with Geoff Murray, a partner at Oliver Wyman's global aerospace sector team in April this year.

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.

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Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says. There is cause for hope, however.

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The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.

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In March, Delta approved a contract that increases wages 34 percent by 2026 and includes improvements to scheduling, retirement and other benefits. Delta's deal raised the standard for pilot compensation and benefits.

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.

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What countries are looking for pilots? If the Middle East is booming with air travel, East Asia is in command. The countries of East Asia, such as China, Japan and South Korea – except for the current situation with regard to the coronavirus – are some of the countries with the greatest demand for pilots from the East.

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