Is high-speed rail profitable?

He said there are only a few examples of high-speed rail networks that turn a profit, due to a rare combination of passenger numbers and distance. For example, most of the companies that run Japan's Shinkansen or bullet train lines operate at a profit, as do some fast trains on France's state-owned SNCF network.



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However, it seems that the aggressive campaign to reap the lucrative economic dividends of HSR has increased the state-run operator's total liabilities, which as of the end of 2021 reached 5.91 trillion yuan ($882 billion), or roughly 5% of China's GDP, reported Asia Nikkei.

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This investment has spurred economic benefits around California and across the country. Investment in high-speed rail is supporting jobs, labor income and economic output across a number of California's regions, including some of those hardest hit by the Great Recession.

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High-speed rail (HSR) provides social and economic benefits to cities by facilitating the rapid movement of people and goods. Regarding HSR profitability, the state-owned China Railway Corporation (CRC) has reported an annual operating loss of about 30 billion yuan for the past two consecutive years.

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Funding for California high-speed rail has come from the legislative appropriation of state special funds and from federal competitive grants. No funding comes from traditional state sources, such as the gas taxes or general fund dollars.

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This chart displays the Breakeven Analysis on Phase 1 of the high-speed rail system assuming the horizon year of 2040, showing a 99.4 percent probability that Phase 1 would be profitable between $0 to $5.7 billion and a 0.6 percent chance of deficit between $220 million and 0.

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Per mile, the New York project cost $2.6 billion, which is high even by U.S. standards. For example, the Purple Line in Los Angeles cost $800 million per mile.

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Highways (as well as aviation) became the focus of infrastructure spending, at the expense of rail. This trend has continued, and not the least because highways require continuous maintenance, while the US's growing population demands more lanes and roads to relieve congestion.

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China: Surpassing the Rest of the World Due to generous funding from the Chinese government, high-speed rail in China has developed rapidly over the past 15 years. China began planning for its current high-speed rail system in the early 1990s, modeling it after Japan's Shinkansen system.

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Railroads are roughly four times more fuel efficient than trucks. Shipping freight via rail limits greenhouse gas emissions and increases fuel efficiency, reducing the transportation carbon footprint. In fact, moving freight by rail instead of truck lowers greenhouse gas emissions by 75%.

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Empirical results suggest that the newly launched HSR services have induced industrial gentrification in the developed station area. Except for the displacement of agricultural production activities, HSR-induced industrial gentrification has not yet been manifested in the newly developed station area.

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Therefore, high speed rail, while more costly than highway transportation in terms of internal costs, primarily due to its high capital cost, is significantly less costly than highway in terms of social costs.

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