Will California high speed rail be profitable?

This chart displays the Breakeven Analysis on Phase 1 of the high-speed rail system assuming the horizon year of 2040, showing a 99.4 percent probability that Phase 1 would be profitable between $0 to $5.7 billion and a 0.6 percent chance of deficit between $220 million and 0.



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With the right commercial strategy, high-speed rail (HSR) routes can be profitable, with some lines achieving modal shares of up to 65%.

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This investment has spurred economic benefits around California and across the country. Investment in high-speed rail is supporting jobs, labor income and economic output across a number of California's regions, including some of those hardest hit by the Great Recession.

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Structures complete/in progress are at 74% for 2022, projected 86% in 2023. Miles of guideway complete/in progress is at 74% in 2022, projected 81% in 2023. Overall contract is at 66% in 2022, projected 72% in 2023.

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The Hyperloop system is expected to be a faster and economical alternative to conventional short- range aviation and high-speed rails. Moreover, a market study by NASA (Taylor et al., 2016) concluded that developing Hyperloop facilities would be cheaper than other high-speed railway Page 5 5 networks.

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From a financial standpoint, only two HSR lines in the world are profitable: Paris-Lyon in France and Tokyo-Osaka in Japan. A third line, Hakata-Osaka in Japan, breaks even. The majority of high-speed rail lines require large government subsidies from both general taxpayers and drivers.

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Cumulatively, the top 10 railway companies in the world generated revenue of $237,432 million, with average revenue growth of 0.57%, the highest revenue was generated by Deutsche Bahn AG ($55,666 million), followed by SNCF Group ($41,094 million) and Indian Railways ($27,326 million), while Canadian National Railway Co ...

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– In the strongest show of a continued partnership, the California High-Speed Rail Authority (Authority) announced today receiving nearly $202 million from the U.S. Department of Transportation to expand construction of high-speed rail by completing six grade separations.

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In a world becoming ever more urbanised, rail travel is well matched to urban needs. High-speed rail can serve as an alternative to short-distance air travel, and conventional and freight rail can complement other transport modes to provide efficient mobility.

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Rail currently provides low-cost long-distance transportation for heavy freight, which HSR is unlikely to do given its higher costs and the track damage caused by heavy trains. HSR may compete with the domestic air cargo industry, though its historically poor profitability suggests lackluster returns.

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Wider Risks to the Chinese Economy In 2020, China Railway's final profit and loss statement recorded losses of ¥55 billion CNY (approx. ¥1.1 trillion JPY/ $7.9 billion USD), while in 2021, it was in the red by ¥49.8 billion CNY (approx. ¥1 trillion JPY/ $7.2 billion USD).

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BNSF Railway leads the market The railroad focuses on transporting freight commodities such as coal, industrial or agricultural products. In 2022, the company generated some 24.49 billion U.S. dollars in freight revenue and hauled more than 10 million carloads across the country.

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Railroad infrastructure quality - Country rankings The highest value was in Japan: 6.8 points and the lowest value was in Albania: 1.2 points. The indicator is available from 2009 to 2019. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

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The state-owned company's net profit of €2.4 billion is to be used to modernize the network and reduce the company's debt.

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Constructing a high-speed line requires a massive upfront capital investment. Given the number of years required to bring a high-speed rail project to an operational state, obtaining construction capital from conventional commercial financing sources is not feasible.

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