What will happen if Lake Mead dries up?

What happens if Lake Mead dries up forever? If Lake Mead were to run out of water, the Hoover Dam would no longer be able to generate power or provide water to surrounding cities and farms. The Colorado River would essentially stop flowing, and the Southwest would be in a major water crisis.



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In October 2022, the water levels were at a historic low, at roughly 1,046 feet. The environmental crisis at Lake Mead led to the discovery of artifacts and even the remains of several people who were lost to the waters decades ago.

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If the Hoover Dam shuts down, it will have a ripple effect in the states of Nevada, Arizona, and California. There will be less water to go around, power will have to come from less clean sources, and all industries will be impacted some way or another.

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While the dam is expected to last for centuries, engineers predict the structure could last for more than 10,000 years, surpassing most remnants of human civilization if humans were to disappear from the earth. However, they also predict the dam's turbines without human intervention would shut down within two years.

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“It has some impact, but it's not very much. I don't think you would notice Lake Mead appreciably rising just from the results of big rainstorms,” Miller said. After years of mostly seeing its water levels fall, Lake Mead has steadily risen since April.

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Dead pool conditions would mean the end of all electric production, as well as water, from the Colorado River. Electricity would not just be the only thing lost. Without Lake Mead, Las Vegas would lose access to 90 percent of its water sources.

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Lake Mead expected to have gained 20 feet of water by end of 2023. By the end of the year, the water level at Lake Mead is expected to be at least 20 feet higher than it was in January, according to a Bureau of Reclamation forecast released this week.

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The Lake Mead problem could be resolved by draining Lake Powell and storing the water in Lake Mead. More than 5% of the water in the Colorado River evaporates off the surface of Lake Powell - which never should have been built.

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Mead reaches dead pool at 895 feet. If Lake Powell reaches dead pool, the US Bureau of Reclamation—which declined our interview requests—would be unable to meet its obligation to deliver water downstream to Lake Mead. In which case, 40 million people would be affected.

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Without Lake Mead, Las Vegas would lose access to 90 percent of its water sources. If Lake Mead were to reach dead pool, it would technically still be able to supply drinking water to Las Vegas. But there will not be enough water for agricultural activities.

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It's worrying to see the lake's water level decline but the chances of it fully drying up are very slim. The Hoover Dam and Lake Mead still do so much important work for the southwest USA, in terms of both water supply and power generation.

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The last time Lake Mead was at maximum capacity, reaching an elevation of about 1,220 feet near the dam, was in 1983 and 1999, NASA notes.

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“While the amount of precipitation received from the recent storms in the lower basin and from tributary inflows helps, the greatest source of water for Lake Mead is still from snow melt and flows from the upper basin — especially from good winter snowpack from the west slope of the Rocky Mountains,” Hendrix said.

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1 inch = 2 billion gallons. Over seven days (Aug. 20-27), the lake gained about 13 and a half inches – 27 billion gallons. The increase at Lake Mead is because releases from Glen Canyon Dam – 280 miles upstream on the river – have increased.

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As much as we clearly wanted it to, Hurricane Hilary couldn't help with that. Its rain didn't reach into the Rockies to sate those soils. And while Hilary drenched areas near Lake Mead, it gained less than a foot of elevation in the days after the storm (it is a big lake, after all, which takes a lot of water to fill).

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That water would likely cover an area of 10 million acres (4 million hectares) 1 foot (30 centimeters) deep. To put that area in perspective, the entire state of New Jersey is 9 million acres (3.6 million hectares). Downriver towns and major cities would see the most damage, in the event of the dam's physical collapse.

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