What would happen if the Great Salt Lake dries up?

A recent report found that the lake could essentially disappear within five years. As a key stopover for migrating birds, the lake's loss could undermine whole ecosystems. These salty lakes occur in so-called endorheic basins—places where there is no outlet for the water to flow out to sea.



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According to a recent study by Brigham Young University, it's possible that Great Salt Lake could dry up completely in the next five years.

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The low lake level and increasing salinity threaten to disrupt economic mainstays like agriculture, tourism, mineral extraction and brine shrimp harvesting. Exposed sediments can also reduce air quality and so threaten public health.

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Water experts say it's going to take more than one big year to fill the Great Salt Lake. SALT LAKE CITY — Ever since The Great Salt Lake hit its lowest water level on record in November 2022, concerns over things like arsenic in the exposed lake bed have only grown.

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A recent report found that the lake could essentially disappear within five years. As a key stopover for migrating birds, the lake's loss could undermine whole ecosystems.

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New analysis says Great Salt Lake can be saved, but not without great effort, and expense.

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SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) — The Utah Division of Water Resources is sharing good news about the impacts all the rain is having on the Great Salt Lake, whose water levels reached a historic low last year.

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The state of Utah owns basically most of the Great Salt Lake, including Antelope Island, Fremont Island, Gunnison Island, the Ogden and Farmington bay wetland areas, along with the entire lakebed.

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The economic output of Great Salt Lake is $1.32 billion annually, with a total labor income of $375.1 million and total employment of 7,706 jobs. The industries that operate on the lake contribute significantly to the world supply of magnesium, sulfate of potash, and brine shrimp.

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The shallow bottom of Great Salt Lake supports a microbial carpet that harness the sun's energy through the process of photosynthesis. This carpet is made up of a community of microbes, including several types of cyanobacteria (also known as blue-green algae), algae and other organisms.

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The best place to swim or float in the lake is at Antelope Island State Park, where white oolitic sand beaches provide easy access to the lake without the brine flies that are prevalent on other areas of the shoreline. The beach area also has showers to rinse off the salty water.

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Most recent data within water-surface elevations show a downward trend. With climate change and Utah's ever growing human population, we expect this negative trend to continue. In fact, it is estimated that the lake is 11 feet lower due to human diversions.

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Four rivers, the Bear, Jordan, Ogden and Weber feed into the lake. They provide a constant supply of fresh water, and carry with them dissolved and suspended minerals (such as salt), sand, and rock particles. These minerals and sand are deposited in the lake. The only way water leaves the lake is through evaporation.

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Great Salt Lake has ranged in salinity from about 5 percent to 27 percent over the past 22 years. This is two to nine times saltier than the ocean's 3 percent. At present Farmington Bay is approximately 5 percent salt, while the North arm is 26 percent and the South arm is 14 percent.

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It was called Lake Bonneville, and northern Utah, southern Idaho, northern Nevada was all underwater, a freshwater lake. But as the Earth warmed up, ice dams broke, and water evaporated, and all the water seeping out left behind this salty puddle in the bottom of the bathtub, and that's what we call Great Salt Lake.

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Because of the abundant algae and halophiles, as well as the high salinity, the lake does not support fish — but it teems with brine shrimp and brine flies, which provide essential nutrition for migrating birds.

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A new scientific report warns the lake is on track to disappear in the next five years, unless water use is cut by as much as 50% annually. I don't know of any other environmental threat that's moving this quickly, said Bonnie Baxter, a Westminster College biochemist and one of the authors of that study.

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“We're not going to be bailed out by excess snow,” Baxter said. “We're hitting these pressures of climate change now. Mother Nature is not likely to cooperate with five landmark years, so to expect this to happen five years in a row, that's not going to happen.”

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To augment the declining Great Salt Lake , a pipeline has been proposed to pump seawater from the Pacific Ocean. As extreme as it sounds, the idea is still being considered almost a year after it was first raised.

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3 ways we're working to preserve Great Salt Lake
  1. Improving watershed management. Management of water is critical to safeguarding Great Salt Lake. ...
  2. Enhancing water conservation. Utah is committed to using our existing water supply as wisely as possible and ensuring the success of our state. ...
  3. Optimizing agricultural tools.


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Lake Levels Due to its shallowness (an average of 14 feet deep and a maximum of 35 feet deep), the water level can fall dramatically during dry years and rise during wet years. When snowpack melts in the spring, the lake usually rises about 2 feet. However, record snowpack in 2023 triggered a rise of 5.5 feet!

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