Where will aviation be in 10 years?

Over the next 10 years, the worldwide commercial aircraft fleet will grow 3.3% annually from 29,000 to 42,000, notwithstanding the ongoing geopolitical and supply chain challenges impacting Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) production rates, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy.



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As the industry plans to support a near doubling of passenger and cargo numbers by 2036, demand for pilots, engineers, air traffic controllers and other aviation-related jobs is expected to rise dramatically. What is also certain is that innovations in technology and approaches will be needed to sustain this growth.

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By 2030, the expectation is that the integration of new technologies will enable airports to deliver passengers customized, on-demand services to improve their airport experience. One such example is the implementation of virtual queuing instead of joining a physical line.

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While the COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive. These include increasing global travel demand, emerging markets, and advancements in electric and sustainable aviation technologies that are driving growth.

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.

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Over the coming years, there are likely to be many opportunities to work as a pilot. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the number of airline and commercial pilot positions to grow 13% by 2030 . This is faster than the expected average career growth.

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Low prices and an ever-expanding route network make it possible: 9 billion passengers are expected in the air by 2050. Thus, the passenger volume in aviation of the future will more than double compared to the current level.

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After almost a decade of talks, the nations of the world committed Friday to drastically lower emissions of planet-warming gases from the world's airplanes by 2050, a milestone in efforts to ease the climate effects of a fast-growing sector.

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The first self-flying cargo planes will enter civil aviation, sharing the skies with piloted airplanes. Small, self-flying planes will begin carrying passengers on short, regional flights. Larger passenger jets will begin operating without a pilot on the flight.

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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Data, about 14,500 job openings for airline and commercial pilots are expected through 2030. Jobs for commercial pilots are expected to grow 11 percent in that time, faster than the national average.

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The next generation of aircraft At the other end of the scale are eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft – air taxis that are expected to become commercially active within the next few years. “Air taxis are not only sustainable, but they will change our lives completely.

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The ICAO attributes the improvements in safety to the safety commitments shared across the industry. In fact, the trend across many years of aviation is that, today, it is safer than ever to fly.

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Travellers will have to 'chase the shade', choosing holidays based on cooler and safer destinations that are not ravaged by climate change. Destinations like Belgium, Slovenia and Poland are touted as the top future summer holiday destinations, as Majorca and Greece become too hot to handle.

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Despite the short-term decline in the number of active pilots, analysis shows that the civil aviation industry will require more than 260,000 new pilots over the next decade. As air travel resumes progressively over the next several years, the industry will experience upward mandatory retirement and attrition rates.

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Boeing Forecast
Trusted by more than 100 aviation regulatory agencies worldwide, the current Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook concludes that the aviation industry will need to supply more than 602,000 commercial airline pilots worldwide over the next 20 years2.

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