Will pilots be needed in 10 years?

Despite the short-term decline in the number of active pilots, analysis shows that the civil aviation industry will require more than 260,000 new pilots over the next decade. As air travel resumes progressively over the next several years, the industry will experience upward mandatory retirement and attrition rates.



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The Sky's the Limit: The Growing Demand for Pilots
Boeing's 2022 Pilot & Technician Outlook forecasts a need for 626,000 new pilots by 2040, as airlines and operators continue to expand their fleets and networks. This impressive figure highlights the ample opportunities that lie ahead for current and aspiring pilots.

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We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. That still represents about 23% of the pilot workforce, so the problem is far from eliminated.

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In 2020, the number of pilots aged over 45 was around 16,000, while the demand for air travel has been growing strongly and consistently over the last decade. In total, it is estimated that around 81,000 additional pilots will be needed across the Americas between 2019 and 2029.

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This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.

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But the need for pilots in general is growing. The Academy of Aviation estimates over 800,000 pilots will be needed over the next 20 years.

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Job Outlook
Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 18,100 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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The demand for pilots is set to soar in the coming years. Boeing's 2022 Pilot & Technician Outlook forecasts a need for 626,000 new pilots by 2040, as airlines and operators continue to expand their fleets and networks.

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Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says. There is cause for hope, however.

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The pilot shortage is slowly easing — but isn't going away anytime soon. Autonomous planes could fill the gap. The pilot shortage is estimated at 18,000 commercial aviation pilots in 2023, and 17,000 in 2030.

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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Most likely not, as the pilot was always meant to be actively involved in flying operations.

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Job security and remuneration
In terms of job security, becoming a pilot is a very safe bet. With the world's ever-growing population, the demand for air travel will only increase. As a result, pilots will always have a job to go back to.

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Commercial flying is all about getting where you want to be, and planting your feet. You are never too old to earn your pilot's license as long as you can pass all the physical and mental requirements. Nor is there an age limit on flying.

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In the U.S., there are no FAA age limits for pilots except for commercial airline pilots employed by airlines certificated under 14 CFR Part 121. These airlines cannot employ pilots after they reach the age of 65. However, these pilots may stay on with a Part 121 carrier in some other role, such as flight engineer.

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Despite the short-term decline in the number of active pilots, analysis shows that the civil aviation industry will require more than 260,000 new pilots over the next decade. As air travel resumes progressively over the next several years, the industry will experience upward mandatory retirement and attrition rates.

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The industry is growing more rapidly than the current rate can meet. Becoming a pilot now puts you at an advantage when that demand is truly here. You'll have seniority and be in demand meaning you'll have a sky full of opportunities!

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Career Instability
Pilots and aviation professionals tend to be the collateral. Aviation often utilizes a system called 'seniority,' meaning if you were the last in, you'd be the first out! While flying is a well-paid career, it isn't always the most stable.

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Pilot Salary - How Much Do Pilots Make? - 2023
However, that was 2021. In 2023, we expect this average pilot salary to increase by 20-40% over the next four years.

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No doubt flying through many different time zones, in the dry air environment of an aircraft cabin at a cabin altitude of 8,000 feet, puts the body under more stress than it would be on the ground. This stress causes the tellers to shorten, which is the cause of pilots living less than the most people.

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