Will airline pilots become obsolete?

This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.



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The U.S. military has been flying autonomous planes for decades, of course, but always in a segregated airspace. Now it's becoming increasingly clear that self-flying planes are coming to commercial aviation, and not in some distant Jetsons future world. Aircraft manufacturers are working toward it.

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The bottom line is that Bruno Nouzille thinks there will be pilots in the cockpit for a long time to come. But with flight crews working with increasingly complex automated systems, there will need to be significant changes in how humans and systems interact.

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots ' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.

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The Sky's the Limit: The Growing Demand for Pilots Boeing's 2022 Pilot & Technician Outlook forecasts a need for 626,000 new pilots by 2040, as airlines and operators continue to expand their fleets and networks. This impressive figure highlights the ample opportunities that lie ahead for current and aspiring pilots.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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Job Outlook Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 4 percent from 2022 to 2032, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 16,800 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.

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The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.

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The industry is growing more rapidly than the current rate can meet. Becoming a pilot now puts you at an advantage when that demand is truly here. You'll have seniority and be in demand meaning you'll have a sky full of opportunities!

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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Tsourdos says it is highly unlikely that we will have commercial flights without pilots any time soon. “The role of the pilots may change through the years, so they will be supervisors. I think from the safety and resilience point of view, it's unlikely they'll disappear,” he says.

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While the future of aviation may see the integration of autonomous aircraft, it is unlikely that pilots will become obsolete in the next 50 years. The human element in aviation is essential, providing expertise, decision-making abilities, and a sense of security to passengers.

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In 2023, we expect this average pilot salary to increase by 20-40% over the next four years.

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I even here in North America and in Europe it's a very well-respected career. It's a well-paid career. Even more so as you accrue hours of flight experience. I think there's lots of benefits associated to it that I think the layman employee would not really have the options to do.

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