Will pilots be phased out?

This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.



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Robotic pilots will probably take the position of human pilots, although a human pilot will still be needed to control the aircraft. AI or Robots can replace a pilot, but when? Aviation technology applications are not always created with human interaction in mind.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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Job Outlook Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 4 percent from 2022 to 2032, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 16,800 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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From memory, the net effect after 15,000 hours in a jet (a large but achievable number for an older pilot) is on the order of 30 nanoseconds. Subjective to their own experience (a clock that rides along with them their entire life), no. Everyone ages the same rate by that measure.

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Job Outlook
Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 18,100 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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Tsourdos says it is highly unlikely that we will have commercial flights without pilots any time soon. “The role of the pilots may change through the years, so they will be supervisors. I think from the safety and resilience point of view, it's unlikely they'll disappear,” he says.

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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Regarding magnitude, in our most likely scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the most extreme scenarios. Eventually, the impact of furloughs, retirements, and defections will create very real challenges for even some of the biggest carriers.

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The demand for pilots is set to soar in the coming years. Boeing's 2022 Pilot & Technician Outlook forecasts a need for 626,000 new pilots by 2040, as airlines and operators continue to expand their fleets and networks.

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The industry is growing more rapidly than the current rate can meet. Becoming a pilot now puts you at an advantage when that demand is truly here. You'll have seniority and be in demand meaning you'll have a sky full of opportunities!

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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Aside from the realities of the physics of flight, people will always want to be on the move. Demand for air travel will keep growing in the foreseeable future, according to IATA, whose recent figures show that demand is expected to reach 94% of 2019 levels in 2023 and will increase to 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.

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Some students ask themselves, “Am I too old to become a pilot?” and wonder how long they will be able to pursue a career in the air. No one is too old to attend flight school, as long as they are physically capable of operating an aircraft.

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Being a pilot means being able to travel the world. You can expect a hugely rewarding career. You will get to see new places and meet new people, and you get to see the world from a different perspective. A lot of pilots even enjoy flying abroad because they get paid more than they normally would in their home country.

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