How long will airline pilots be needed?

Trusted by more than 100 aviation regulatory agencies worldwide, the current Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook concludes that the aviation industry will need to supply more than 602,000 commercial airline pilots worldwide over the next 20 years2.



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We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. That still represents about 23% of the pilot workforce, so the problem is far from eliminated.

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Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says.

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Job Outlook Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 4 percent from 2022 to 2032, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 16,800 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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Boeing Forecast Trusted by more than 100 aviation regulatory agencies worldwide, the current Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook concludes that the aviation industry will need to supply more than 602,000 commercial airline pilots worldwide over the next 20 years2.

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Job Outlook Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 4 percent from 2022 to 2032, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 16,800 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.

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In order for the airlines to try and manage their business during the COVID-19 pandemic, they offered incentives to pilots for early retirement in the form of large monetary buyouts. Many pilots took this lucrative offer, and now these pilots cannot be quickly rehired by the airlines or easily replaced.

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2030 – 14,500 pilot shortage
14,500 pilots will be needed each year through 2030. This is according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, due to a combination of pilot retirements and increasing demand for air travel.

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Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 18,100 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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There are many reasons why becoming a pilot is worth it. For starters, it's a career that offers great freedom and flexibility. Pilots can travel all around the world and experience different cultures, climates, and landscapes.

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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An acute pilot shortage for major airlines including United, Delta, American and Southwest is forcing the industry to rethink how it trains pilots and recruits the next generation of aviation labor in the cockpit.

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How much does a Boeing 747 Pilot make in New York? The salary range for a Boeing 747 Pilot job is from $78,698 to $105,268 per year in New York. Click on the filter to check out Boeing 747 Pilot job salaries by hourly, weekly, biweekly, semimonthly, monthly, and yearly.

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The more senior pilots will be able to keep their jobs, but if airlines go into full shutdowns or bankruptcies, all bets are off.

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The Securing Growth and Robust Leadership in American Aviation Act, which reauthorizes funding for the Federal Aviation Administration and aviation safety and infrastructure programs for the next five years, includes an amendment that would raise the mandatory retirement age for pilots from 65 to 67.

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In the 1980s, roughly two-thirds of all airline pilots in the United States had some form of military experience, be it Air Force, Army, Navy, or National Guard. Today, it is estimated that about one-third of airline pilots have military backgrounds, a sharp reduction that can be attributed to multiple factors.

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More than a third of commercial pilots still aren't flying for a living, according to a worldwide survey, highlighting the prolonged damage the coronavirus has had on the industry as the crisis enters its third year. The Pilot Survey 2022 found that only 62% of pilots remain in their job, and 20% are unemployed.

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This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.

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Unlike other professions, say lawyers or sales agents, airline pilots are generally loved and respected. There is just so much respect for the profession that not a few would regard it a personal honor to be in acquaintance with a pilot.

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In 2023, we expect this average pilot salary to increase by 20-40% over the next four years.

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