Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says. There is cause for hope, however.

In 2026, the pilot shortage is extremely real and is currently at its projected historical peak. According to 2026 industry data from consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the global shortfall is estimated at approximately 24,000 pilots. This gap is driven by a "perfect storm": a massive wave of mandatory retirements for pilots hitting age 65, a 3.4% annual surge in post-pandemic air travel demand, and the high cost of entry for new students. Major carriers like United and American have aggressive 2026 hiring targets (around 2,500 and 1,500 pilots respectively), but the regional airline sector is suffering most, as their pilots are constantly "poached" by the majors. In 2026, this shortage is the primary reason for high airfares and the reduction of service to smaller "flyover" cities, as airlines are forced to prioritize their limited flight crews on high-profit long-haul routes.