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What are the projections for California high speed rail?

Structures complete/in progress are at 74% for 2022, projected 86% in 2023. Miles of guideway complete/in progress is at 74% in 2022, projected 81% in 2023. Overall contract is at 66% in 2022, projected 72% in 2023.



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Fact: High-speed rail is starting with an initial 171-mile segment that will extend from Merced to Bakersfield. At the same time, we are continuing to move forward with environmental clearance in Northern California and Southern California to get these project sections ready for construction.

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This chart displays the Breakeven Analysis on Phase 1 of the high-speed rail system assuming the horizon year of 2040, showing a 99.4 percent probability that Phase 1 would be profitable between $0 to $5.7 billion and a 0.6 percent chance of deficit between $220 million and 0.

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In mid-2026, commence station construction, with completion estimated to be in mid-2028. In mid-2028, first trainset expected to be delivered. In mid-2028, original 119-mile (192 km) segment to be completed. In mid-2029, full IOS 172-mile (277 km) segment to be completed.

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In 2022, Amtrak saw its ridership jump to 22.9 million, an 88% increase. Amtrak saw big increases in ticket and food and beverage revenue in 2022 as compared to 2021. But it still isn't close to pre-pandemic levels.

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In 2008, California voted yes to build the nation's first high-speed railway. The plan is to build an electric train that will connect Los Angeles and San Francisco in two hours and forty minutes. But 15 years later, there is not a single mile of track laid, and there isn't enough money to finish the project.

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The plan to build a high-speed train that will connect Las Vegas with Southern California took another important step this month. The massive transportation project by Brightline could begin as soon as this year, with an estimated completion plotted for around 2027.

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The interstate highway system cost $129 billion — roughly $290 billion in current dollars — and took 35 years to complete, running from 1957 to 1992. The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill enacted in 2021 has $102 billion for rail, but none of the money is set aside for high-speed rail.

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High-speed rail is creating jobs and stimulating California's economy, but that's only part of the story. There are currently over 30 active construction sites spanning 119 miles from north of Fresno to north of Bakersfield, and the 3,700 foot Cedar Viaduct was completed this summer.

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A story of US transportation Highways (as well as aviation) became the focus of infrastructure spending, at the expense of rail. This trend has continued, and not the least because highways require continuous maintenance, while the US's growing population demands more lanes and roads to relieve congestion.

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Infrastructure: we built it first. The US built its rail systems a long time ago. Updating it is incredibly expensive because old systems were not designed to be easily upgraded to newer technologies. No one knew what those newer technologies would even be.

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Highways (as well as aviation) became the focus of infrastructure spending, at the expense of rail. This trend has continued, and not the least because highways require continuous maintenance, while the US's growing population demands more lanes and roads to relieve congestion.

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In 2008 when voters approved the bond measure for the train, the cost to connect the 500-mile span would be around $33 billion. Today, the whole 500-mile system would cost a grand total of $128 billion. That price tag has left state officials scratching their heads to bridge that $100 billion funding gap.

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How long would it take a bullet train to get from New York to California? If it were like the high speed trains in China, it would run around 300 km/hr. It's about 4500 km from LA to NY, so 15 hours, assuming no stops.

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With the environmental approval in place, officials said Brightline remains on track to break ground at the end of this year, with hopes of starting service by early 2027.

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Funding for California high-speed rail has come from the legislative appropriation of state special funds and from federal competitive grants.

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The high-speed rail system will consist of up to 24 stations when completed, connecting the major population centers in the North and South through California's Central Valley.

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