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What is the travel outlook for summer 2023?

Indeed, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts that the global travel and tourism sector will reach US$9.5 trillion in 2023 — just 5% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels. The positive summer travel outlook is echoed by data from J.P. Morgan Research.



The travel outlook for summer 2023 was defined by a massive "resurgence" in demand, often referred to as "revenge travel," as global tourism neared 95% of pre-pandemic levels. Despite significant inflation and a rising cost-of-living crisis, consumers prioritized vacations over other non-essential spending, with the World Travel & Tourism Council forecasting global sector revenue to reach $9.5 trillion. International travel saw the most significant growth, as markets that were previously closed or restricted finally fully reopened to tourists. However, this surge in demand created a supply-demand imbalance, leading to higher airfares and hotel rates. The industry also faced operational challenges, including staffing shortages and aircraft delivery delays, which posed a constant risk of flight cancellations and airport congestion. Overall, the season was characterized by high profitability for airlines and cruise lines, though "cautious" travelers began leaning more toward all-inclusive packages to lock in costs and avoid inflation-driven price hikes during their trips.

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The major trends are:
  • U.S. dominance.
  • Patchy post-pandemic recovery.
  • The Far East revving up.
  • Resilience of classic beach destinations.
  • The heat wave.
  • Worldwide, summer (July 1 to August 31) flight bookings were 23 percent behind pre-pandemic (2019) levels and 31 percent ahead of last year.


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Indeed, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts that the global travel and tourism sector will reach US$9.5 trillion in 2023 — just 5% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels. The positive summer travel outlook is echoed by data from J.P. Morgan Research.

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We've upgraded our 2023 inbound tourism forecast. Visits overall to the UK this year are now forecast to be 37.5 million, 92% of 2019 levels and inbound visitor spending £30.9 billion, up 9%. See the statement from our CEO Patricia Yates below and the full revised forecast here.

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In short, expect the same trip taken this year to cost slightly less than what it did this time last year (largely thanks to the steep drop in airfares) — but it'll cost significantly more than the pre-pandemic prices you're used to paying.

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On average, Google Flights recommends booking your flight 52 days out for domestic travel in November during Thanksgiving, as this is when airfare, on average, is at its cheapest. However, prices are historically lowest anywhere between 36 and 74 days before departure.

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2023 will be the year of reimagining travel
As travel restrictions and Covid testing become a thing of the past, research reveals that 73% of people are more optimistic about travel than they were in 2022.

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It mostly comes down to supply and demand. Demand is contributing to higher prices as travel continues to surge post-pandemic, Berg said. Sustained strong demand in 2023 continues to put additional pressure on prices, especially to and within regions where travel has only recently reopened like parts of Asia.

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Beginning May 3, 2023, your driver's license will need to be REAL ID-compliant if you want to use it to fly within the U.S. It's part of a law passed by Congress. If your license is not compliant, and you don't have another acceptable form of ID, you'll have trouble getting through airport security.

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TSA is projecting to screen 2.6 million passengers on Tuesday, Nov. 21; 2.7 million passengers on Wednesday, Nov. 22 and 2.9 million passengers on Sunday, Nov. 26, which will likely be the busiest travel day.

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The cheapest months to travel are:
  • November – early December.
  • Late January – March.


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Finding the cheapest day to fly usually falls mid week on Wednesdays, but can just as easily fall on any other day of the week based on demand. Time of year also is a huge factor on ticket prices, as traveling during low or off peak seasons will see prices drop for flights.

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The Demand for Business Travel is Back Business travel is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024 as more and more companies resume in-person meetings and events. According to GBTA's Business Travel Index Outlook report, business travel spending will reach $1.4 trillion in 2024 and nearly $1.8 trillion by 2027.

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A significant reduction in the number of travel agents. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, full-time agents declined from a peak of 124,000 in 2000 to 82,000 in 2019. From 1997 to 2013, retail travel agency headcount fell by 59 percent—from 22,938 to 9,387, said Skift, a travel media and events company.

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