Will airlines go pilotless?

Leading companies like Wisk (in partnership with Boeing) are designing autonomous eVTOL (electric Vertical TakeOff & Landing) aircraft that can be certified for use without an onboard pilot. Despite people's comfort with self-flying planes, we're still many years away from seeing fully automated passenger aircraft.



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The U.S. military has been flying autonomous planes for decades, of course, but always in a segregated airspace. Now it's becoming increasingly clear that self-flying planes are coming to commercial aviation, and not in some distant Jetsons future world. Aircraft manufacturers are working toward it.

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Robotic pilots will probably take the position of human pilots, although a human pilot will still be needed to control the aircraft. AI or Robots can replace a pilot, but when? Aviation technology applications are not always created with human interaction in mind.

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Boeing Forecast
Trusted by more than 100 aviation regulatory agencies worldwide, the current Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook concludes that the aviation industry will need to supply more than 602,000 commercial airline pilots worldwide over the next 20 years2.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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Over the coming years, there are likely to be many opportunities to work as a pilot. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the number of airline and commercial pilot positions to grow 13% by 2030 . This is faster than the expected average career growth.

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Low prices and an ever-expanding route network make it possible: 9 billion passengers are expected in the air by 2050. Thus, the passenger volume in aviation of the future will more than double compared to the current level.

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Aircraft with fixed wings cannot stand still in the air, unless we are talking about VTOL (Vertical Take Off and Landing) aircraft. Lift is created by air flowing around the wing. Too little forward speed, and the wing will stall (loose lift).

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots ' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.

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We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. That still represents about 23% of the pilot workforce, so the problem is far from eliminated.

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But as air travel demand continues to recover in 2022, our most recent forecast now projects that demand for pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally between 2022 and 2024 — and continue to worsen over the next decade.

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Job Outlook
Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 18,100 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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Commercial flying is all about getting where you want to be, and planting your feet. You are never too old to earn your pilot's license as long as you can pass all the physical and mental requirements. Nor is there an age limit on flying.

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The answer is no. While some airlines have an age requirement before you can fly a commercial flight, there's no age limit in wanting to become a pilot. Many think that at age 40, they have missed their opportunity to become a pilot.

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It's worth noting that pilots are probably the furthest from being replaced by AI. First, countless legal, regulatory, and safety requirements need to be met. New laws would have to be written and tested to allow AI-controlled aircraft, which could take many years. Then, there is public perception to consider.

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