Will pilots still be needed?

We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. That still represents about 23% of the pilot workforce, so the problem is far from eliminated.



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This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.

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Research from Oliver Wyman shows that because of more demand for travel these days, there's a need for more pilots than can be supplied, as pilot training comes with a price tag and time commitment that can be quite challenging. Not enough pilots could mean fewer flights available for travelers.

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But the need for pilots in general is growing. The Academy of Aviation estimates over 800,000 pilots will be needed over the next 20 years.

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Yes, being a pilot is worth it for many students. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5% job growth for airline and commercial pilots over the next ten years.

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Most likely not, as the pilot was always meant to be actively involved in flying operations.

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Despite the short-term decline in the number of active pilots, analysis shows that the civil aviation industry will require more than 260,000 new pilots over the next decade. As air travel resumes progressively over the next several years, the industry will experience upward mandatory retirement and attrition rates.

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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The industry is growing more rapidly than the current rate can meet. Becoming a pilot now puts you at an advantage when that demand is truly here. You'll have seniority and be in demand meaning you'll have a sky full of opportunities!

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Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says. There is cause for hope, however.

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Yes. Delta Airlines pilot's salary will see a 34% increase over the next three years as airlines compete to attract as many qualified pilots as possible. And American Airlines were just offered a 40% pay rise, seeing a top earner making $590,000 a year.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.

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Aside from the realities of the physics of flight, people will always want to be on the move. Demand for air travel will keep growing in the foreseeable future, according to IATA, whose recent figures show that demand is expected to reach 94% of 2019 levels in 2023 and will increase to 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.

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Pilot Salary - How Much Do Pilots Make? - 2023
However, that was 2021. In 2023, we expect this average pilot salary to increase by 20-40% over the next four years.

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2030 – 14,500 pilot shortage
14,500 pilots will be needed each year through 2030. This is according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, due to a combination of pilot retirements and increasing demand for air travel.

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No doubt flying through many different time zones, in the dry air environment of an aircraft cabin at a cabin altitude of 8,000 feet, puts the body under more stress than it would be on the ground. This stress causes the tellers to shorten, which is the cause of pilots living less than the most people.

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In any case, the position is a rare privilege in the US, with commercial pilots accounting for just 0.05% of the population. With this in mind, how exactly can you join this rare club? Stay informed: Sign up for our daily and weekly aviation news digests.

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Commercial flying is all about getting where you want to be, and planting your feet. You are never too old to earn your pilot's license as long as you can pass all the physical and mental requirements. Nor is there an age limit on flying.

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Never too Late to Learn to Fly
You must pass a medical exam to get your pilot's license and it's not a one-time thing. Pilots under the age of 40 must pass the medical exam every 60 months, while pilots aged 40 and older must pass it every 24 months.

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