Will California high-speed rail be profitable?

This chart displays the Breakeven Analysis on Phase 1 of the high-speed rail system assuming the horizon year of 2040, showing a 99.4 percent probability that Phase 1 would be profitable between $0 to $5.7 billion and a 0.6 percent chance of deficit between $220 million and 0.



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With the right commercial strategy, high-speed rail (HSR) routes can be profitable, with some lines achieving modal shares of up to 65%.

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This investment has spurred economic benefits around California and across the country. Investment in high-speed rail is supporting jobs, labor income and economic output across a number of California's regions, including some of those hardest hit by the Great Recession.

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Structures complete/in progress are at 74% for 2022, projected 86% in 2023. Miles of guideway complete/in progress is at 74% in 2022, projected 81% in 2023. Overall contract is at 66% in 2022, projected 72% in 2023.

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California's plan is to build an electric train that will connect Los Angeles with the Central Valley and then San Francisco in two hours and 40 minutes. But 15 years later, there is not a single mile of track laid, and executives involved say there isn't enough money to finish the project.

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For the 2021/22 financial year, Network Rail recorded a £324M pre-tax profit. That is down from the £1.6bn profit recorded in the previous financial year. The profit dip has been blamed on inflationary-related cost pressures, with revenue only dipping slightly from £9.61bn last year to £9.55bn this year.

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While rail workers have had their pay frozen in the same period, DfT data shows that the private train operators made £310 million in taxpayer-funded profits between March 2020 and September 2022.

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In a world becoming ever more urbanised, rail travel is well matched to urban needs. High-speed rail can serve as an alternative to short-distance air travel, and conventional and freight rail can complement other transport modes to provide efficient mobility.

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Shanghai Maglev, China The world's fastest train can be found in Shanghai, China, where maglev (magnetic-levitation) technology allows passengers to travel from Pudong International Airport to Longyang Road metro station in just seven minutes.

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Wider Risks to the Chinese Economy In 2020, China Railway's final profit and loss statement recorded losses of ¥55 billion CNY (approx. ¥1.1 trillion JPY/ $7.9 billion USD), while in 2021, it was in the red by ¥49.8 billion CNY (approx. ¥1 trillion JPY/ $7.2 billion USD).

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Implementing high-speed rail will keep billions of dollars in the U.S. economy by decreasing the amount of oil that the U.S. consumes. According to the International Association of Railways (UIC), high-speed rail is eight times more energy efficient than airplanes and four times more efficient than automobile use.

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A story of US transportation Highways (as well as aviation) became the focus of infrastructure spending, at the expense of rail. This trend has continued, and not the least because highways require continuous maintenance, while the US's growing population demands more lanes and roads to relieve congestion.

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China: Surpassing the Rest of the World Due to generous funding from the Chinese government, high-speed rail in China has developed rapidly over the past 15 years. China began planning for its current high-speed rail system in the early 1990s, modeling it after Japan's Shinkansen system.

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The UK was ranked eighth among national European rail systems in the 2017 European Railway Performance Index for intensity of use, quality of service and safety performance.

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Being one of the busiest railways, it offers more than 25 train operating companies with thousand destinations. Providing passengers excellent facilities and service onboard British trains feature high-speed comfort during a train journey!

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California's plan is to build an electric train that will connect Los Angeles with the Central Valley and then San Francisco in two hours and 40 minutes. But 15 years later, there is not a single mile of track laid, and executives involved say there isn't enough money to finish the project.

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High-speed rail is creating jobs and stimulating California's economy, but that's only part of the story. There are currently over 30 active construction sites spanning 119 miles from north of Fresno to north of Bakersfield, and the 3,700 foot Cedar Viaduct was completed this summer.

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Environmental: Our zero emission trains will be powered by 100% renewable energy. On average, California's electrified high-speed rail will keep more than 3,500 tons of harmful pollutants out of the air – every year.

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