Will pilots become obsolete?

This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.



In 2026, the consensus among aviation experts and technology firms is that human pilots will not become obsolete for the foreseeable future, despite rapid advancements in AI and autonomous flight systems. While increased automation is undeniably changing the cockpit—moving toward "single-pilot operations" in some cargo or short-haul sectors—the role of a human captain remains indispensable for safety, complex decision-making, and public trust. Industry forecasts from Boeing and Oliver Wyman actually predict a global pilot shortage through 2032, with North America needing tens of thousands of new aviators to meet rising travel demand and replace retiring personnel. Current trends suggest that rather than being replaced, pilots will evolve into "systems managers" who oversee highly sophisticated digital copilots. Fully autonomous commercial airliners are restricted by significant regulatory hurdles and the human psychological requirement for a trained pilot to manage emergencies that AI cannot yet solve, ensuring the profession remains a high-demand, high-skill career path for decades.

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The demand for commercial airline travel rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, heightening the need for pilots and mechanics. But while the number of pilots has grown in recent years, there may not be enough of them to meet airlines' needs in the future. There also may not be enough mechanics to maintain airplanes.

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Yes, being a pilot is worth it for many students. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5% job growth for airline and commercial pilots over the next ten years.

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In 2020, the number of pilots aged over 45 was around 16,000, while the demand for air travel has been growing strongly and consistently over the last decade. In total, it is estimated that around 81,000 additional pilots will be needed across the Americas between 2019 and 2029.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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Additionally, AI-powered pilots could be used to fly aircraft in dangerous or remote areas where human pilots would not be safe. Overall, it is likely that AI will play an increasingly important role in aviation in the years to come. However, it is not likely that AI will replace human pilots anytime soon.

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The bottom line is that Bruno Nouzille thinks there will be pilots in the cockpit for a long time to come. But with flight crews working with increasingly complex automated systems, there will need to be significant changes in how humans and systems interact.

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The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.

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The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.

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While the future of aviation may see the integration of autonomous aircraft, it is unlikely that pilots will become obsolete in the next 50 years. The human element in aviation is essential, providing expertise, decision-making abilities, and a sense of security to passengers.

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2025 – 34,000 pilots shortage
More than 34,000 newly trained pilots needed by 2025. The FAA predicts that air travel demand will continue to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year, even as more than 4,100 pilots per year retire in the US alone.

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In 2023, we expect this average pilot salary to increase by 20-40% over the next four years.

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What Jobs Will AI Replace (and Why)?
  • Transportation and material moving (nearly 12 million jobs)
  • Sales and sales-related roles (3.8 million jobs)
  • Production (2.8 million jobs)
  • Office and administrative support (14.4 million jobs)
  • Food preparation and service (4.4 million jobs)


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Emergence of the pilot shortage Regarding magnitude, in our most likely scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the most extreme scenarios.

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How Many Jobs Will AI Replace? According to the World Economic Forum's “The Future of Jobs Report 2020,” AI is expected to replace 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025. Though that sounds scary, the report goes on to say that it will also create 97 million new jobs in that same timeframe.

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How much does a Boeing 747 Pilot make in New York? The salary range for a Boeing 747 Pilot job is from $78,698 to $105,268 per year in New York. Click on the filter to check out Boeing 747 Pilot job salaries by hourly, weekly, biweekly, semimonthly, monthly, and yearly.

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots ' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.

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In the U.S., there are no FAA age limits for pilots except for commercial airline pilots employed by airlines certificated under 14 CFR Part 121. These airlines cannot employ pilots after they reach the age of 65. However, these pilots may stay on with a Part 121 carrier in some other role, such as flight engineer.

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Not to mention exposure to radiation, pressure changes, high levels of stress, and sitting for hours at a time. These factors can speed up the aging process for many pilots and research suggests they often die younger than the average population, particularly after retirement.

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