Is the pilot shortage ending?

But as air travel demand continues to recover in 2022, our most recent forecast now projects that demand for pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally between 2022 and 2024 — and continue to worsen over the next decade.



As of early 2026, the pilot shortage is not ending; in fact, it is reaching a critical peak. Industry analysts, including firms like Oliver Wyman, estimate a global shortfall of approximately 24,000 pilots this year. While airline hiring has been aggressive, the rate of mandatory retirements (at age 65) is currently outpacing the number of new pilots graduating from flight schools. Major carriers like United, Delta, and American have launched massive internal "cadet academies" to bridge the gap, but the pipeline takes years to produce a captain. The shortage is most acutely felt at regional airlines, which are struggling to retain pilots as "Major" airlines poach their staff. In 2026, this has led to higher pilot salaries and more lucrative signing bonuses, but for the traveling public, it continues to cause occasional flight cancellations and reduced service to smaller, less profitable regional airports.

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Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says.

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They can train about 1,500 to 1,800 pilots a year, Headley said. But since the industry is short about 17,000 pilots right now, we can't catch up that quick, he said. Because of the current staffing shortage, commercial airlines have cut back flights to smaller regional airports.

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United Airlines (UAL) - Get Free Report, in particular, has felt the dearth of trained pilots quite acutely. In a March 2023 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the airline named a lack of qualified pilots as one of the reasons for expecting a loss in the first quarter of 2023.

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14,500 pilots will be needed each year through 2030. This is according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, due to a combination of pilot retirements and increasing demand for air travel.

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Despite the short-term decline in the number of active pilots, analysis shows that the civil aviation industry will require more than 260,000 new pilots over the next decade. As air travel resumes progressively over the next several years, the industry will experience upward mandatory retirement and attrition rates.

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Boeing Forecast Trusted by more than 100 aviation regulatory agencies worldwide, the current Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook concludes that the aviation industry will need to supply more than 602,000 commercial airline pilots worldwide over the next 20 years2.

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Most likely not, as the pilot was always meant to be actively involved in flying operations.

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Europe. Although other regions require new pilots more urgently than Europe, the problem is still there, and it will gain momentum towards the end of 2024 into 2025, according to the interview by Airways Magazine with Geoff Murray, a partner at Oliver Wyman's global aerospace sector team in April this year.

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In the current estimate for 2021-2040, over the next two decades 612,000 new pilots will be required worldwide, with 130,000 of these in North America, primarily the U.S.. Expectations are similar for other staff in the aviation industry such as mechanics and cabin crew, as the whole market expands.

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Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says. There is cause for hope, however.

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Yes, being a pilot is worth it for many students. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5% job growth for airline and commercial pilots over the next ten years.

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The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has established a special certification called a restricted privileges ATP certificate which allows pilots who have less than 1,500 hours of flight time or who are below the minimum age of 23 to serve as co-pilots until they have amassed the required number of hours.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the median U.S. pilot salary at $211,790 in 2022. This means 50% of pilots earn more than this, and 50% earn less. However, there are pilots working for major airlines making more than $700,000 per year.

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Is being a pilot worth it in 2023? In terms of job security, becoming a pilot is a very safe bet. With the world's ever-growing population, the demand for air travel will only increase.

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The USA is one of the top countries for flight training. It is home to some of the world's oldest and most reputed universities and training institutions. It is also globally acknowledged for its flight education curriculum.

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While the future of aviation may see the integration of autonomous aircraft, it is unlikely that pilots will become obsolete in the next 50 years. The human element in aviation is essential, providing expertise, decision-making abilities, and a sense of security to passengers.

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What Jobs Will AI Replace (and Why)?
  • Transportation and material moving (nearly 12 million jobs)
  • Sales and sales-related roles (3.8 million jobs)
  • Production (2.8 million jobs)
  • Office and administrative support (14.4 million jobs)
  • Food preparation and service (4.4 million jobs)


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With the responsibility of steering aircraft worth millions and the lives of hundreds, if not thousands, under their care, the demand for pilots is on the rise. This also explains why pilots are one of the most trusted professions in America.

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Job Outlook
Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 18,100 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

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More Jobs Than Just Airline Pilot By 2037, the industry is expecting a need for over 600,000 pilots – and that's just for commercial airline pilots. The demand will continue to increase and those with the right skills will find themselves highly valuable and in demand, with dozens of different paths to choose from.

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots ' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.

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