It's worth noting that pilots are probably the furthest from being replaced by AI. First, countless legal, regulatory, and safety requirements need to be met. New laws would have to be written and tested to allow AI-controlled aircraft, which could take many years. Then, there is public perception to consider.
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This year's graduating cadre of young cadets could possibly be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny.
We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. That still represents about 23% of the pilot workforce, so the problem is far from eliminated.
Boeing ForecastTrusted by more than 100 aviation regulatory agencies worldwide, the current Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook concludes that the aviation industry will need to supply more than 602,000 commercial airline pilots worldwide over the next 20 years2.
Overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 18,100 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year, on average, over the decade.
Tsourdos says it is highly unlikely that we will have commercial flights without pilots any time soon. “The role of the pilots may change through the years, so they will be supervisors. I think from the safety and resilience point of view, it's unlikely they'll disappear,” he says.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires all pilots to take their last flight by their 65th birthday, and they cannot fly again after that no matter their health or ability. Most pilots are retiring because of age: At least 5,773 retire each year because they hit the mandatory retirement age of 65.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline and commercial pilots ' employment should grow 13% between 2020 and 2030, quicker than the average for all occupations. About 14,700 openings for airline and commercial pilots are projected each year over the decade.
The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it's an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.
We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. That still represents about 23% of the pilot workforce, so the problem is far from eliminated.
Despite the short-term decline in the number of active pilots, analysis shows that the civil aviation industry will require more than 260,000 new pilots over the next decade. As air travel resumes progressively over the next several years, the industry will experience upward mandatory retirement and attrition rates.
Over the coming years, there are likely to be many opportunities to work as a pilot. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the number of airline and commercial pilot positions to grow 13% by 2030 . This is faster than the expected average career growth.
14,500 pilots will be needed each year through 2030. This is according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, due to a combination of pilot retirements and increasing demand for air travel.
An acute pilot shortage for major airlines including United, Delta, American and Southwest is forcing the industry to rethink how it trains pilots and recruits the next generation of aviation labor in the cockpit.
Aside from the realities of the physics of flight, people will always want to be on the move. Demand for air travel will keep growing in the foreseeable future, according to IATA, whose recent figures show that demand is expected to reach 94% of 2019 levels in 2023 and will increase to 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.